Monday, October 4, 2010

Pre-budjet Rally?

Just read through the MAYBANK report onBudget 2011
some of the highlights from my remiser comments:

Construction (Overweight) -
Major winner thanks to major projects. The beneficiaries will also flow down to the building material players. Buys:

Construction: GAMUDA (TP: RM4.38), IJM (TP: RM5.50), WCT (TP: RM3.30), SUNWAY (TP: RM2.35) and HSL (TP: RM1.90)
Long steel: ANNJOO (TP: 3.05) and KINSTEEL (TP: RM1.00)

Property (Overweight) - No changes in taxes but watch out for imposition of a higher cap on loan-to-value ratio (LVR) rule. Overweight on the developers with strong demand to be driven by ample liquidity. Buys:
Property: SUNCITY (TP:RM5.20), MAHSING (TP: RM2.30) and GLOMAC (TP: RM1.84)
REITs: SUNREIT (TP:RM1.15), CMMT (TP: RM1.20), AXREIT (TP: RM2.28), ARREIT (TP: RM1.19).

Tobacco, Brewery and Gaming (Neutral) - Regular but manageable excise duty hikes Tobacco - Given the resultant 70sen/pack price increase effective today, we expect BAT and JTI's earnings to continue heading in opposite directions. A larger factor is likely to be the continued shift from BAT's premium Dunhill brand to the illicit sector mainly and secondarily to JTI's value Winston brand.
Sell BAT (TP: RM43.00) & Buy JTI (TP: RM6.00) Brewery - Both listed brewers, CARLSBG & GAB will be able to withstand a measured single-digit percentage increase in duty. We prefer CARLSBG mainly because of greater leverage to the Singapore market, which is enjoying a boost from tourism and the success of the casinos.
Buy CARLSBG (TP: RM5.50) & Hold GAB (TP: RM8.40) Gaming - small chance of a gaming duty increase.
Buy GENTING (TP: RM10.45), Sell GENM (TP: RM2.40).

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