Tuesday, December 30, 2014

PRAY HARD FOR MISSING AIR ASIA PLANEQZ8501

Indonesia expands search for missing AirAsia jet, U.S. sends warship

SURABAYA, Indonesia/JAKARTA (Reuters) - Countries around Asia on Tuesday stepped up the search for an AirAsia plane carrying 162 people that is presumed to have crashed in shallow waters off the Indonesian coast, with Washington also sending a warship to help find the missing jet.

Soelistyo, head of Indonesia's search and rescue agency, told local television the search area between the islands of Sumatra and Borneo would be expanded. The air force said authorities would investigate an oil spill sighted on Monday.

Authorities would also begin scouring islands in the area as well as land on Indonesia's side of Borneo. So far the focus of the search has been the Java Sea.

The Airbus A320-200 operated by Indonesia AirAsia lost radar contact in poor weather on Sunday morning during a flight from the Indonesian city of Surabaya to Singapore. The plane could be at the bottom of the sea, Soelistyo said on Monday.

What happened to Flight QZ8501, which had sought permission from Indonesian air traffic control to ascend to avoid clouds, is still a mystery.

Online discussions among pilots have centred on unconfirmed secondary radar data from Malaysia that suggested the aircraft was climbing at a speed of 353 knots, about 100 knots too slow in poor weather, and that it might have stalled.

Around 30 ships and 21 aircraft from Indonesia, Australia, Malaysia, Singapore and South Korea would search around 10,000 square nautical miles on Tuesday, officials said.

They said the sea there was only 50 to 100 (150 to 300 feet) metres deep, which would be a help in finding the plane, which was carrying mainly Indonesians.

The U.S. military said the USS Sampson, a guided missile destroyer, would be on the scene later on Tuesday.

The U.S. Defense Department said assistance to Indonesia "could include some air, surface and sub-surface detection capabilities".

"We stand ready to assist in any way possible," Pentagon spokesman Mark Wright said.

China's Defence Ministry said it had sent a warship to the South China Sea and planes "have begun preparatory work" for search operations.

FALSE ALARMS

There have been no confirmed signs of wreckage so far.

Officials said one of the possible oil slicks seen on Monday turned out to be a reef and that while searchers had picked up an emergency locator signal off the south of Borneo no subsequent signal was found.

The plane, whose engines were made by CFM International, co-owned by General Electric and Safran of France, lacked real-time engine diagnostics or monitoring, a GE spokesman said. Such systems are mainly used on long-haul flights and can provide clues to airlines and investigators when things go wrong.

The plane's disappearance comes at a sensitive time for Jakarta's aviation authorities, as they strive to improve the country's safety reputation to match its status as one of the airline industry's fastest growing markets.

It also appears to be a third air disaster involving a Malaysian-affiliated carrier in less than a year, further denting confidence in that country's aviation industry and spooking air travellers across the region.

Indonesia AirAsia is 49 percent owned by Malaysia-based budget carrier AirAsia.

Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 went missing on March 8 on a trip from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing with 239 passengers and crew and has not been found. On July 17, the same airline's Flight MH17 was shot down over Ukraine, killing all 298 people on board.

NO SIGN OF FOUL PLAY

On board Flight QZ8501 were 155 Indonesians, three South Koreans, and one person each from Singapore, Malaysia and Britain. The co-pilot was French.

U.S. law enforcement and security officials said passenger and crew lists were being closely examined but so far nothing significant had turned up and that the incident was still regarded as an unexplained accident.

The plane, which did not issue a distress signal, disappeared after its pilot failed to get permission to fly higher because of heavy air traffic, officials said.

Pilots and aviation experts said thunderstorms, and requests to gain altitude to avoid them, were not unusual in that area.

"The airplane's performance is directly related to the temperature outside and increasing altitude can lead to freezing of the static radar, giving pilots an erroneous radar reading," said a Qantas Airways pilot with 25 years' experience flying in the region.

The resulting danger is that pilots take incorrect action to control the aircraft, said the pilot, who requested anonymity.

The Indonesian pilot was experienced and the plane last underwent maintenance in mid-November, the airline said.

The AirAsia group, including affiliates in Thailand, the Philippines and India, had not suffered a crash since its Malaysian budget operations began in 2002.

At a crisis centre at the airport in Surabaya, Indonesia's second-largest city, anger grew among about 100 relatives.

"We only need clear information every hour on where they are going," said Franky Chandra, who has a sibling and three friends on the flight, referring to the search teams.

"We've been here for two days but the information is unclear. That's all we need."

(Additional reporting by Wilda Asmarini, Fransiska Nangoy, Cindy Silviana, Kanupriya Kapoor, Michael Taylor, Nilufar Rizki and Siva Govindasamy in JAKARTA, Al-Zaquan Amer Hamzah and Praveen Menon in KUALA LUMPUR, Saeed Azhar, Rujun Shen and Anshuman Daga in SINGAPORE, Jane Wardell in SYDNEY, Ben Blanchard in BEIJING, Tim Hepher in PARIS and Mark Hosenball, David Brunnstrom and Lesley Wroughton in WASHINGTON; Writing by Dean Yates; Editing by Michael Perry)



0%
0%
12%
75%
13%
0%

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Highest Paid Jobs in Malaysia According to Kelly Services

Highest Paid Jobs in Malaysia According to Kelly Services

Malaysia’s job market is robust.

I whatsapped EduSpiral and got the information  I needed about the university and course. He then arranged for me and my mother to meet up with APU counselors and to tour the campus as well. Li Jian, IT at Asia Pacific University
I whatsapped EduSpiral and got the information I needed about the university and course. He then arranged for me and my mother to meet up with APU counselors and to tour the campus as well.
Li Jian, IT at Asia Pacific University
Skilled professionals are in demand in Malaysia, with some industries being considerably more pronounced than others.

According to the Kelly Services 2014/2015 Malaysia Salary Guide , “the skilled talent pool in Malaysia is at 27 percent – far off from the estimated requirement of 45 percent to meet the national agenda of a high income nation by 2020.”

The good news is, with higher demand, comes increased standard of wages. In the past 12 months, there has been a spike in wages, with the banking and finance sector benefitting from the highest spike of 10 to 25 percent in monthly wages, followed by the sales and marketing sector which benefitted from 10 to 20 percent spike, the logistic and warehousing sector with a 10 to 15 percent increase, the engineering sector went up to 10 percent while information technology with five to 10 percent spike in wages.

The Malaysia Salary Guide also lists down a whole number of jobs with an indication of what the average salary range should be, according to placements made by Kelly Services Malaysia.

Highest-paying positions and industries (per month basis) as listed by Kelly Services Malaysia

Information Technology (IT) is a High Paying Job in Malaysia

IT is the industry with the most shortage and demand currently,” said Kamal Karanth, director of Kelly Services Malaysia.

IT stands as one of the highest-paid industries with programme directors as well as chief technology officers and chief information officers of 12-18 years having an earning capacity between RM22,000 and RM35,000 monthly.

Project directors, sales directors, and service delivery directors in the IT industry of the same experience level stand to earn anywhere between RM16,000 and RM25,000.

Engineering is one of the Top Paid Salaries in Malaysia

Another high-paying industry is engineering, with engineering managers of 8-12 years of experience earning a minimum of RM13,000 and a maximum of RM22,000. Utilities managers, another high-paying position can earn a minimum of RM16,000 and a maximum of RM21,000.

Sales and Marketing Professionals are Paid High Salaries in Malaysia

Coming into close competition with the engineering industry is none other than the universal money-making industry themselves. Heads of sales and marketing and sales directors with over 10 years of experience stand to rake in a minimum of RM12,000 and a maximum of RM25,000, while vice presidents of corporate strategy and planning of just seven to 10 years of experience are paid within the same range.

Human Resources (HR) is a Top Paid Position in Malaysia

Those in the Human Resource field also stand to make a rather decent living, with HR directors of over 15 years of experience having an earning capacity between RM15,000 to RM30,000. Senior HR managers of seven to 10 years of experience may earn anywhere between RM8,000 and RM18,000, while senior recruitment managers of the same experience can earn anywhere between RM10,000 and RM15,000 per month.

EduSpiral Consultant Services- Your Personal Online Education Advisor

Established since 2009, EduSpiral Consultant Services helps provide information and counselling on courses and universities
EduSpiral took us to visit APU and UCSI so that we can see the campus facilities and make a better decision about our future. Kian Yong (Mechanical Engineering) at UCSI University and Hong Ann (Software Engineering) at Asia Pacific University
EduSpiral took us to visit APU and UCSI so that we can see the campus facilities and make a better decision about our future.
Kian Yong (Mechanical Engineering) at UCSI University and Hong Ann (Software Engineering) at Asia Pacific University
in Malaysia. EduSpiral Consultant Services also represents MDIS Singapore and Hong Kong Polytechnic University.
EduSpiral Consultant Services represents the best colleges and universities in Malaysia offering a wide range of choices for students to choose from. These colleges and universities offer value for money in the quality of education and excellent facilities that you get.

Tuesday, December 16, 2014

Even Warren Buffett got hurt by oil prices By Jason Hall

Even Warren Buffett got hurt by oil prices

December 12, 2014: 10:09 AM ET

NEW YORK

Is Buffett ready to move on from his biggest "mistake" stock?


Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) CEO Warren Buffett has established himself as one of the greatest investors and capitalists of our time. His every move and word is noted and analyzed, and for good reason: People can learn a lot about successful long-term investing through him.

 However, even the Oracle of Omaha has made his share of mistakes, and we can learn from those, too. According to the company's most recent 13-F filing, which discloses its positions in public companies at the end of each quarter, Buffett sold more shares of a company that he's been gradually selling out of since 2009. Let's take a closer look at this Berkshire holding. Chances are there's something we can all learn from the story.

Buffett's big mistake: Back in 2008, Buffett invested billions of dollars into major oil company ConocoPhillips. (COP) At the time, oil was at all-time high prices, and the world was at the doorstep of a major economic crisis. Here's how Buffett himself described his decision in his 2008 letter to shareholders:

"Last year I made a major mistake of commission (and maybe more; this one sticks out). Without urging from Charlie [Munger] or anyone else, I bought a large amount of ConocoPhillips stock when oil and gas prices were near their peak. I in no way anticipated the dramatic fall in energy prices that occurred in the last half of the year. I still believe the odds are good that oil sells far higher in the future than the current $40-$50 price. But so far I have been dead wrong. Even if prices should rise, moreover, the terrible timing of my purchase has cost Berkshire several billion dollars."

Here's what ConocoPhillips' stock has done since the quarter Buffett made the big buy:

Conoco Phillips



We are talking about five and a half years to recover, and at this stage, Berkshire's holding in ConocoPhillips has fallen to only 472,000 shares from nearly 85 million at the peak in 2008. In all, Buffett invested more than $7 billion in the company, and he had sold almost half of that stake at a major loss by 2010.

Related: Why Amazon.com CEO Jeff Bezos Embraces Failure

Today's ConocoPhillips is a different company: Berkshire did get some additional value from Buffett's investment. In 2012, ConocoPhillips spun Phillips 66 (PSX) out in a tax-free spinoff, and Berkshire ended up with more than 27 million shares of the midstream and petrochemicals giant.

Just last year, Buffett was able to work some more of his magic with those shares, trading around $1.4 billion worth of them back to Phillips 66 in exchange for Phillips Specialty Products, which Berkshire could then pair with its own chemical business, Lubrizol.

The beauty of this transaction? Because it was an asset swap, it was tax-free for Berkshire, which would have paid hefty capital gains had it sold those Phillips 66 shares on the open market.

Related: Social Security: 3 Things to Know Before Taking Benefits Early

As for ConocoPhillips, Buffett invested in a fully integrated major oil company, while the spinoff turned it into an exploration and production company. Frankly, this major transition of the business is likely one of the major reasons behind Buffett's years-long process of reducing Berkshire's holdings in the company. It's no longer the company he bought.

The most important lesson here? Even though the ConocoPhillips investment turned out to be a disaster for Berkshire, and I think Buffett will fully exit the investment in 2015, it's just a drop in the bucket that is the Berkshire portfolio. As of the most recent 13-F, the company held more than $107 billion in stocks, and the largest holdings are diversified across the financial, consumer goods, and tech sectors.

The company's largest exposure to an oil company is ExxonMobil (XOM), which is now down about 13% for the year. It's the largest of the integrated major energy companies and, by most accounts, the best-run and most conservative with its capital. ExxonMobil makes up about 3.5% of the Berkshire stock portfolio.

oil price drop



The point? Billion-dollar mistakes sound big, but it's all about the percentages. Berkshire's portfolio is fairly concentrated, with about 83% invested in the 10 largest holdings, but it's also a portfolio that gets new money on a regular basis.

Related: 10 Investment Lessons That Have Stood the Test of Time

Lessons learned:

The first lesson is that no investor is infallible -- we all make mistakes. There are two things that separate the best investors from the average:

Do you learn from your mistakes and those of others?

Do you focus on a workable investing process or get caught up in the short-term results?

Buffett didn't let a billion-dollar mistake cause him to change a process that has proved effective for decades of market-crushing returns. If you're going to follow Buffett, don't mimic his moves. Develop a long-term process that's focused on finding great companies. You'll buy your share of flubs like ConocoPhillips in 2008, but getting a 10-bagger, like American Express (AXP) has been for Berkshire, will cover up plenty of mistakes.

Jason Hall has written for The Motley Fool since 2012.



Wednesday, December 3, 2014

WHY STOCKS GO DOWN

 

from http://www.fool.com

Why Stocks Go Down

  • profits slipping, sales slipping
  • top executives leave the company
  • a famous investor sells shares of the company
  • an analyst downgrades his recommendation of the stock, maybe from "buy" to "hold"
  • the company loses a major customer
  • lots of people are selling shares
  • a factory burns down
  • other stocks in the same industry go down
  • another company introduces a better product
  • there's a supply shortage, so not enough of the product can be made
  • a big lawsuit is filed against the company
  • scientists discover the product is not safe
  • fewer people are buying the product
  • the industry used to be "hot," but now another industry is more popular
  • some new law might hurt sales or profits
  • a powerful company enters the business
  • rumors
  • no reason at all

Tuesday, December 2, 2014

A greatly disppointing Quarter from Kenanga

3QCY14 Results Review
A Greatly Disappointing Quarter
By Chan Ken Yew / kychan@kenanga.com.my
The FBMKLCI fell ≈50 points to retest its recent low of ≈1,765 yesterday after the just concluded corporate results season. While we have no doubt that this latest string of quarterly results showed great disappointment across the board, we also believe other unfavourable external factors such as:  sharp decline in crude oil prices, (ii) lacklustre CPO prices, and (iii) rapid weakening in Ringgit, were also the complicit culprits.
During the quarter, we saw the highest number of companies so far under our coverage delivering results,which were below expectations, amounting to 40% of the stocks under our coverage universe. Transportation & Logistics, Consumer MLM, Consumer Retail, Oil & Gas, Plantations, Gloves and Aviation saw significant downgrades (>5%) in our current financial year’s earnings estimates.
Consequently, our FY14E-FY15F core net profit growth estimates for FBMKLCI were revised to 1.4%-4.8%(from 4.9%-11.3% previously). In tandem with the weaker results and less bullish earnings growth prospect,our end-2015 Index Target has also been revised lower to 1,950 (from 1,980 previously) while end-2014 Index Target was lowered to 1,870 (from 1,910 previously). At 1,870, the FBMKLCI is expected to trade at 21.1x FY15PER while it is valued at 20.5x FY16 PER should we peg our index target at 1,950.
As market sentiment has turned weaker, we reckon investors should lower their “Buy On Weakness” (B.O.W.)zone to 1,775/60, representing c.8.5% discount to Consensus Index Target of 1,925/40.
Note that this support zone represents -1SD-level below the 5-year average discount of 5.5%. This support zone has proven resilient during the recent market selldown.
While we like construction and building materials as well as export-orientated sectors to leverage on the domestic economic growth, we prefer heavily sold down Oil & Gas stocks to capitalise on the recent sharpbdecline in their stock prices, as we believe certain Oil & Gas stocks still offer good bottom-fishingopportunities as values have started to emerge (even after earnings downgrades). We like (i) DAYANG (OP,TP: RM3.40), (ii) BARAKAH (OP, TP: RM1.62), (iii) PERDANA (OP, TP: RM1.61) and SKPETRO (OP, TP: RM4.24)to a certain extent. On the flip side, AIRASIA (OP, TP: RM2.802) could be a natural hedge against oil priceweakness.

For conservative investors, they may consider resilient sectors such as Telco, Power and Water
Utilities. Our OUTPERFORM calls in these sectors are PESTECH (TP: RM4.36), TENAGA (TP: RM14.65),YTLPOWR (TP: RM1.70) and PUNCAK (TP: RM3.99)

Saturday, November 29, 2014

Strong upside potential seen for Mah Sing

Strong upside potential seen for Mah Sing
http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2014/11/29/Strong-upside-potential-seen-for-Mah-Sing/?style=biz
 
PETALING JAYA: Mah Sing Group Bhd is known for its quick turnaround business model, tending to unlock the value of its land-bank quicker with an estimated project timeline of six to eight years, said Credit Suisse Securities Research.
 
Credit Suisse, which has given Mah Sing an “outperform” rating with a target price of RM2.90, said this had enabled the company to achieve higher property sales relative to its landbank size.
 
It added that the price points and concepts in Mah Sing’s product mix were one of the most resilient in the current market environment.
 
The target price of RM2.90 values the stock at 10.5 times its projected earnings in 2015 and is at a discount to its revised net asset value (RNAV) of RM3.36.
 
Shares of Mah Sing closed three sen up to RM2.33 yesterday.
 
“We expect net profit to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20% driven by record high unbilled sales of RM4.4bil,” Credit Suisse said. It added that despite the strong growth in sales and net profits, rising 4.9 times and 3.7 times respectively, Mah Sing’s market capitalisation growth continued to lag, rising at slow rate of 2.7 times since 2009.
 
“Its peers have seen market capitalisation moved more closely in tandem with the growth in sales and net profits,’’ Credit Suisse noted.
 
Credit Suisse said Mah Sing property sales have tripled since 2007, growing at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27%.
 
Assuming Mah Sing’s market capitalisation was to grow at the same pace as its net profits, it would imply a price of RM3.20, based on Credit Suisse’s calculations.
 
“If the stock grew at the same pace as its growth in property sales, this would imply a share price of RM4.23,” it added.


Wednesday, November 19, 2014

Sunway Berhad OUTPERFORM from KENANGA

Sunway Berhad OUTPERFORM ↔
Price: RM3.23 9M14 Within Expectations Target Price: RM3.87 ↔
By Sarah Lim l sarahlim@kenanga.com.my; Adrian Ng l adrian.ng@kenanga.com

3Q14/9M14
Actual vs. Expectations
9M14 core net earnings of RM385.7m is considered within expectations as it made up 71% and 80% of our, and consensus‘, full-year estimates, respectively. Its 9M14 property sales of RM1.2b was slightly behind the curve as it only makes up 67% of our, and management’s, FY14E sales target of RM1.8b. We believe conversion of bookings to sales had been slower than expected resulting in the shortfall. Thus far, SUNWAY has replenished its internal orderbook by another RM881m, and yet to secure any external orderbook replenishments to date versus our assumptions of RM1.5b.

Dividends No dividend was declared as expected.
Key Results
Highlights YoY, 9M14 core earnings continued to grow steadily, by 18.6% to RM385.7m underpinned by a 5% revenue growth and more significantly, continuous improvements
in its operating margins to 12.1% (+2.5ppt). While property investment and construction (the two major drivers)registered revenue growth of 24.4% and 1.8%, the property division dragged down overall growth as the segment saw weaker progressive billings. Property investment enjoyed new income streams from its newly completed Sunway Pinnacle and Monash University campus extension while leisure and hospitality divisions reported better contributions. Its property development division boosted the expansion in operating margin due to lower common infrastructure cost allocated to the property development component within some of the integratedprojects.

QoQ, its 3Q14 core earnings increased by 18.5% to RM149.3m despite a lower revenue ofRM1134.0m (-6%)mainly due to further improvements on its operating margin which increased by another 2.8ppt to 13.9%, lifted by its property development division, which saw its operating margin soaring by 25.3ppt to 44.5% due tolower common infrastructure cost and higher profit recognition for Sunway Damansara.

Outlook We think the main reason that 9M14 sales is proportionately behind management’s and our FY14E sales target of RM1.8b, is due to: (i) slower-than-expected conversion of booking to SPA sales, (ii) less launches for 1-2 month period running up to Budget announcement. We expect Sunway to ramp up launches totalling to RM830.0 GDV worth of projects like Citrine Service
Apartment, Sunway Cassia and Sophia Hills in Singapore. Its property unbilled sales remain strong at RM2.8b providing at least 1 – 1.5 years earnings visibility. We are still hopeful that SUNWAY is able to secure some sizeable external orderbooks worth c.RM1.0n in 4Q14/1Q15.
Change to
Forecasts
No change in our earnings estimates at this juncture.
Rating Maintain OUTPERFORM
Valuation We reiterate our OUTPERFORM call on SUNWAY with
our SoP driven Target Price of RM3.87 that implies 18%
discount to our FD SoP of RM4.74 (refer overleaf). We
expect the listing of its construction arm by 1H15 and
newsflow will be buoyed by more external jobs of (i)
RM1.0b by end FY14 and (ii) RM1.5b for FY15.
Risks to Our
Call
Failure to meet sales targets or replenish landbank and
external contract replenishments. Sector risks, including
overly negative policies.

Tuesday, November 18, 2014

MATRIX CONCEPTS OUTPERFORM from KENANGA & HONG LEONG

MATRIX CONCEPTS OUTPERFORM
Price: RM2.87 9M14 Results Inline Target Price: RM3.48
By Sarah Lim l sarahlim@kenanga.com.my; Adrian Ng l adrian.ng@kenanga.com

Period 3Q14/9M14
Actual vs. Expectations
Matrix Concepts (MATRIX)’s 9M14 core earnings of RM126.1m was well within our, and streets’, expectations, making up 76% and 78% of ours and streets’ full-year estimates of RM167.2m and RM162.5m, respectively. However, its 9M14 sales came in below our expectations
as MATRIX only manages to rake in total sales of RM449.5m that only makes up 56% of our full-year property sales estimates of RM806.0m; note this is inclusive of Sendayan Tech Valley (STV) land sales. The shortfall was mainly due to the lack of land sales from STV for the year owing to timing issues as prospective buyers could have taken a longer approval process on their end
to invest in STV.

Dividends Second interim dividend of 3.75 sen was declared, which brings 9M14 dividends to 11.0 sen adjusted for bonus issue (3.8% yield). This is considered within expectations as 9M14 makes up 66% of our full-year estimates as we are expecting a higher dividend payout in 4Q14.
Key Results
Highlights
YoY, 9M14 core earnings of RM126.1m saw an increase of 12% from RM112.2m, supported by a marginal 4% improvement on its revenue of RM447.3m coupled with 6ppt expansion on its EBITDA margins from 45% to 51% as they were finally able to recognise the billings from its projects like Hijayu 1A (Phase 1 & 2), which further contributed to better margins.

QoQ, MATRIX’s 3Q14 pre-tax profit remains flattish at RM58.5m despite lower revenue of RM148.8m (-9%) underpinned by lower operating costs, which decreased by 14% to RM90.0m. However, its 3Q14 earnings continued to improve by 6% to RM45.1m mainly attributable to lower effective tax rate of 23% (-5ppt) due to a reversal of non-deductible expenses for tax purposes
due to an over provision in the preceding quarter.
Outlook Pending today’s briefing, we are looking to reduce FY14-15E sales estimates (currently: RM806m-RM824m) and in particular industrial land sales.As for landbanking activities, they are on the lookout for more land in Seremban and Kluang and we do expect more land deals to take place early next year given their light balance sheet. To recap, MATRIX has just replenished 164 acres of industrial land bank that is adjacent to STV back in 19-Sep-14 for RM71.0m.As of 9M14, its unbilled sales stand at RM410.5m providing at least one-year visibility.
Change to Forecasts
No changes to our FY14-15E earnings, pending today’s briefing.
Rating Maintain OUTPERFORM
Valuation We are reiterating our OUTPERFORM recommendation on MATRIX with an unchanged Target Price of RM3.48 based on our FD RNAV of RM4.35 with an unchanged discount of 20%, despite the softer outlook on the property market as we believe that MATRIX is well positioned in
the affordable housing segment and industrial developments within the Greater Klang Valley region.
Furthermore, its valuation is still cheap, trading at only 7.8x and 6.8x FY14-15E PERs coupled with decent dividend yields of 5.8%-6.6% vs. its peers average of 4.5% - 5.5%, respectively.

Risks to Our Call
Unable to meet sales targets or replenish landbank.Sector risks, including additional negative policies.(should just list down as Negeri Sembilan's MB has suggested to increase the Bumiputra's quota of new residential properties from 30% to 50% and this will  negatively affect all property developers in the state especially  Matrix -- a Ngeri Sembilan's property giant!)

Matrix (BUY çè) fro HONG LEONG INVESTMENT
9MFY14 Results In Line
  • Matrix’s 9MFY14 reported PATAMI of RM126.1m came in within expectations.
  • 3.75 sen net DPS was declared in 3Q14, bringing YTD DPS to 12.5 sen
  • We understand that the group’s 3QFY14’s ongoing billings are largely coming from BSS and TSI. New sales during the quarter were RM159m vs. RM138m in 2QFY14.
  • Matrix also launched several developments during the quarter, which totaled to RM146m.
  • As at 9MFY14, the group’s total unbilled sales stands at RM410.5m, representing 0.71x of FY13’s property development revenue.
  • We maintain our TP at RM3.74 (20% discount to RNAV), which implies FY15E P/E of 7.2x. Maintain BUY.

Saturday, November 15, 2014

5 GREATEST STOCKS MYTHS !!!

from

http://www.vectorvest.com/

To a large degree, the investment community is its own worst enemy in scaring off the individual investor. This is very unfortunate because stock investing is one of the best avenues the average person has of accumulating substantial wealth.

MYTH #1: PRICE TO EARNINGS RATIOS TELL YOU WHETHER STOCKS ARE CHEAP OR EXPENSIVE.
P/E ratios are easy to find. Just about every newspaper, magazine and stock report publishes P/E ratios. Everybody seems to talk about them when discussing stocks. So P/E ratios must be a great way to compare stocks.

Right? Wrong!

If you were told that Fly-By-Nite Industries had a P/E of 7, and Fantastic Plastics Inc. had a P/E of 14, would you buy Fly-By-Nite Industries instead of Fantastic Plastics Inc.? You might, but you wouldn't be comfortable making that decision. Why? Because you need more information. You'd like to know a whole lot of things before you decide which stock to buy. One of the most important things you'd like to know is the worth of each stock based upon its earnings, profitability and other key financial data. In other words, you'd like to have a sense of the stock's intrinsic value. P/E ratios don't say anything about a stock's value!

What investors need is a Value to Price ratio. With a Value to Price ratio, investors would know immediately whether a stock was cheap, expensive or fairly priced. But this means we have to have a way of computing value. Of course there are theories and formulas for computing intrinsic value. But they are complex, and some sophisticated investors even say they are unfathomable. Consequently, most investors, even the pros, don't begin to look at stock's intrinsic value! They resort to trivial devices like comparing P/E ratios.

MYTH #2: YOU MUST ASSUME HIGH RISKS TO MAKE GOOD MONEY IN THE STOCK MARKET.
A woman recently said to me, "I'm just scared to death of stocks. I can't afford to lose my hard earned money." The perception of high risk in stock investing is not totally without merit. Many investors have lost substantial sums of money in the market. Visions of investors jumping out of windows back in 1929 are graphic reminders of the risk inherent in stock investing.

Recent events in the market...the Great Crash of '87, the Friday the 13th Mini-meltdown, the ills of Program Trading, insider trading, the Mercury Financial and Bre-X scandals, have also contributed to the casino image associated with stock investing. This is very unfortunate because stock investing is one of the best ways the average person has of accumulating substantial wealth. It just requires a few simple techniques and some discipline. In fact, it can be a lot safer than investing in real estate, collectibles, or your own business.

Here's how to make good money in stocks at low risk:
  • Buy stocks with consistent, predictable earnings growth
  • Buy stocks with earnings growth rates of at least equal to the sum of current inflation and interest rates
  • Do Not put more than 10% of your money into any single stock
  • Do Not own more than two stocks in the same industry
  • Do Not plunge into the market. Spread the investments over time.
  • Use Stop-Sell orders to limit risk
Stocks with consistent, predictable earnings growth are the safest stocks you can buy. They represent the best managed companies in America. A stock portfolio with an average earnings growth rate of at least 14%/yr. has a high probability of doubling in five years. In twenty years it will have increased by 1,500 percent.

If you bought 10 stocks, and limited your loss on any single stock to 10% by using Stop-Sell orders, your total portfolio risk is only 10%. Your risk on any single stock is only 1% of your total portfolio. How many investments can you think of that have the upside potential of stocks with such limited risk exposure?

MYTH #3: BUY STOCKS ON THE WAY DOWN AND SELL ON THE WAY UP.
There's an old adage that says the way to make money in the stock market is to buy low and to sell high. That, of course, is an irrefutable truth. The only problem is that many investors confuse this bit of conventional wisdom with the assumption that if the price of a stock is going down it is low, and if it is going up it is high. Consequently, they buy stocks on the way down and sell on the way up. There's hardly a worse thing an investor could do.

Stocks are bought on the expectation that they will go up. If a stock is going up in price, it is fulfilling that expectation. When the price is going down, it is denying that expectation. Therefore, it is logical to buy a stock when its price is going up. Moreover, one of the best times to buy a stock is when the price has broken above an old high. At this point there are no unhappy holders who are waiting to dump the stock. If the stock is fairly valued, there should be clear sailing ahead.

MYTH #4: STOCKS ARE A HEDGE AGAINST INFLATION
For many years stockbrokers and mutual fund salesmen have been saying that stocks are a hedge against inflation. Well, they are and they aren't. It depends on how you look at it.

A true inflation hedge is one that goes up in value with higher inflation...like a house, or gold, or collectibles. But, the fact is, inflation is the stock market's number one enemy. When inflation goes up, interest rates go up and two things happen. For one thing, investors say, "Golly, I can make all that money on high interest rate bonds so why should I invest in stocks." So they take their money out of the stock market, and stock prices go down. The second thing that happens is that the cost of doing business goes up. So corporate earnings go down, and stock prices go down.

So why in the world would anybody say that stocks are a hedge against inflation? It's because they can make money in stocks faster than inflation will eat it up. All they have to do is invest in stocks which have earnings growth rates higher than the sum of inflation and long-term interest rates. When they do that, the price of the stock will go up faster than inflation. And they will be whipping inflation by staying ahead of it.

MYTH #5: YOUNG PEOPLE CAN AFFORD TO TAKE HIGH RISK
Of all the myths in the market, this may be the cruelest and the most foolish. Everyone knows that the elderly are not supposed to take risks. They must be very conservative because their earnings power is limited. They can't afford to lose their money! Well, who decided that young people could afford to lose their money?

If any group needed to watch every penny, it's the young. They need money to start a family, buy a house, buy furniture, save for the future and on and on. Furthermore, young people usually are at the low end of the earnings scale. They have precious little disposable income.

Young people have an invaluable asset on their side, however. Time. They don't need to take risk. They can invest in tried and true companies that make money year in and year out. At 10%/year growth, their investments will double every seven years. By the time baby is off to college, that initial safe investment has increased by a factor of eight.

When you have time, you can afford patience. Patience pays off in the market.

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

IOI Properties Group Bhd from KENANGA INVESTMENT


Quick Bites
11 November 2014
PP7004/02/2013(031762) Page 1 of 6
IOI Properties Group Bhd OUTPERFORM ↔
Price/TEAP: RM2.70/RM2.59 An Unexpected Cash Call Target Price: RM3.10 ↔
By Sarah Lim l sarahlim@kenanga.com.my

Proposed renounceable rights issue on the basis of 1 (1) rights share for every 6 (6) IOIPG shares held at a fixed issue price of RM1.90 (28% discount to the TEAP of RM2.64). The group is also establishing an ESOS scheme (up to 10% of share capital) as well. The exercises are expected to be completed in 1QCY15.

Comments The rights issuance will raise RM1.03b in proceeds and will increase its share base by 17% to 3.78b shares(before ESOS conversions).Rationale for the cash call is mainly for its investment property CAPEX, working capital and “investment opportunities” (refer overleaf).

We were taken by surprise by the cash call. While cognisant of their heavy CAPEX commitments, we had previously assumed that it will take place gradually over a 3-5 year period and would be driven by operating cashflow and borrowings, particularly as they have a low net gearing of 0.15x in 4Q14. Assuming a maximum net gearing of 0.50x, the group would have been able to raise some RM3.9b worth of funds. However, we gather that IOIPG rather not tax its balance sheet as much of it will be used to fund CAPEX of investmentproperties which does not generate the same payback period as the property development. Furthermore, we dare venture to say that the company is readying funds for future overseas or local landbanking, particularly when times appear to be
challenging globally. We are NEUTRAL on the deal because it does not translate to near term excitements while new landbanking is unlikely to significantly add to IOIPG’s valuation considering its massive GDV base while the stock is already trading at a peak 55% discount to its RNAV.
Post-exercise, our FY15E net gearing will be lowered to 0.21x from 0.23x after taking into account the CAPEX spent.

Outlook The Bangi township project will likely be launched by 2H15 and its first phase will feature double-storeyterraces and shoplots. IOI City Mall, Putrajaya will be completed by year end and we gather that most of the retail spaces have been rented out.

Forecast No changes to FY14-15E estimates.

Rating Maintain OUTPERFORM
Valuation The exercise will reduce our FD RNAV by 5% to RM5.31. However, we rather maintain our TP of RM3.10, which implies a narrower RNAV discount of 42% (45% previously). The applied RNAV discount is in linewith our sector average of 41%.we believe that the companymay be looking to acquire new assets in thenext 12 months. Also, IOIPG is a sector laggard, which has surprised the market with dividends, while earnings disappointments are less likely considering that we have
trimmed earnings in the last 3 consecutive quarters.

Risks to Our Call
Failure to meet sales targets. Sector risks, including
overly negative policies.

Monday, November 10, 2014

DOKTOR BUDAK --- we answer your question on child health

http://www.doktorbudak.com/

About us


We are a group of paediatricians in Malaysia who would like to create an online avenue for parents to ask questions about child health care.
We spend alot of time with babies and children and we often meet anxious parents who have many questions and we realise they are all pertinent questions.
Parents do need good information to care for their child.
We hope this website will be a good place for you to find answer to your questions.
DoktorBudak is a collective effort of several paediatricians and paediatric related specialists in Malaysia. We also have a paediatric dentist, a paediatric surgeon, a child psychiatrist, a speech therapist and a nutrionist. They form the board of panel to answer your questions.

Friday, November 7, 2014

When less popular stocks do better than admired peers -- James Saft

When less popular stocks do better than admired peers

Thursday, 6 November 2014
 
As in high school, maybe investment boils down to that mysterious thing: popularity.
Except in terms of putting money into stocks, it seems to be those eating lunch alone who do best in the end.
 
"We believe that most of the best-known market premiums and anomalies can be explained by an intuitive and naturally occurring (social or behavioral) phenomenon observed in countless settings: popularity," write Roger Ibbotson and Thomas Idzorek in a paper recently published in the Journal of Portfolio Management. (http://www.iijournals.com/doi/full/10.3905/jpm.2014.40.5.068#)
 
They show strong evidence that, over long periods, stocks which we can call less popular actually do better than those which, on a variety of measures, are just more admired or highly sought after. In one light, this is essentially another side of that old market truism which holds that when the fund manager or stockbroker is the most popular guest at a cocktail party then it just might be time to sell.
Ibbotson, of Yale, and Idzorek, of Morningstar Investment Management, argue that popularity can be that rare thing: a lens through which to make sense of the contrasting claims of both the efficient markets and behavioral approaches to explaining securities pricing.
 
Using stock market turnover as a marker of popularity, the authors find a strong correlation between both higher returns and lower volatility. Stocks in the lowest quartile of popularity had an annualized return of 15.51 percent between 1972-2013, as compared to just 8.27 percent for those in the top quartile.
 
If you further examine a ranking of stocks by popularity to look at how they do by volatility you find a general trend of less popular stocks outperforming higher ones in each of the four volatility quartiles.
 
They did similar studies to look at stocks by both popularity and beta, size and valuation and got what they called similar results.
 
"Measured by turnover, the more popular a stock, the less its return, the less popular a stock, the higher its return."
 
TALE OF TWO WORLD VIEWS
 
Economic theory holds that in a rational world (forgive me for laughing), the risk of a given investment ought to be strongly linked to its expected returns. That's just another way of saying that investors expect to be paid for holding riskier assets.
 
Except of course, as we all know from casual observation and study, it doesn't always quite work that way. While this generally holds true in asset classes (think stocks returning more than bonds) there are significant anomalies which investors have explored and puzzled over for decades.
 
That this is true doesn't in itself discredit the efficient market hypothesis, but rather shows that things other than risk drive asset returns within asset classes. The so-called low-beta anomaly, which holds that stocks with lower volatility on some measures do better than higher-volatility stocks, may simply reflect a preference for shares with embedded leverage among fund mangers who aren't allowed to use leverage themselves, according to a theory from Cliff Asness of AQR Capital.
 
Ibbotson and Idzorek think that popularity is in part a reflection that the underlying stocks have attributes that people want, such as liquidity, size or value.
 
Liquid stocks are easier to trade, big stocks allow investors to buy and sell in large size without moving the market too much, and shares trading at high valuations usually have great 'stories' and, significantly, no black marks against them.
 
But there can also be behavioral reasons that investors chase one stock and shun another, factors which might create irrational pricing. The revulsion investors feel when considering a stock which might go bankrupt, for example, may bring on a stronger reaction than the mathematical probability of loss. Conversely, a great-story stock, like Facebook, with a very high price, may bring with it warm feelings, not least the anticipation of getting rich if it keeps on shooting up, which make investors willing to pay too much.
 
Broadly speaking those aspects of popularity that are traits which are expected to be permanent, or long lasting, such as liquidity or volatility, are consistent with efficient markets.
 
Those things which are passing in nature, the popularity of Apple or Facebook, or stocks which are much in the news, are consistent with behavioral investment explanations.
 
The well liked, the familiar and the easy to access may have great qualities as companies and some advantages as investments, but it pays to look for companies with hidden depths. – Reuters
 
* James Saft is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own

Tuesday, November 4, 2014

Why Invest In Stocks?

plenty of educational materials from our BURSA MALAYSIA, go have a good read

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/securities/education/investing-basics/why-invest-in-stocks/

Why Invest In Stocks?
Investing is making your money work for you by getting your money to generate more money. Investing in stocks has consistently proven to be one of the most profitable forms of investment available.
The benefits include:
  • Immediate Buy/Sell so you can sell part of your investment any time. Very low transaction cost.
  • The freedom to work at your own place, at your pace in your own time.
  • Easy monitoring - log in to the market from anywhere in the world.
  • Being able to maximise returns whilst spreading your risk.
  • A predictable form of investment if you know what you're doing.
  • Putting you in control and freeing you of fund management fees.
  • Considerable tax advantages.
Things to watch out for:
  • The market can be a volatile place.
  • You must acquire knowledge of what you are doing.
  • You must monitor your investments.
  • You must learn the discipline to enter and exit the market on entry and exit signals.

Can Ordinary People Profit from the Stock Market?

Many people say things like "I'd love to get into the stock market" or "If I had more money, I'd invest in stocks". Many people also believe that to make a profit from the stock market you either need to be rich already, be a full-time investment trader or be a financial whiz.
Not necessarily so.
Let's take a look at three different scenarios of ordinary people in the stock market to see how they fared. This will let us view how the process works, the different approaches, and how returns are generated.

Scenario 1

John works in a manufacturing plant earning RM33,000 a year. After rent, living and personal expenses, John has managed to save RM1,500 over the past 6 months that he wants to invest in the stock market. John buys 1,600 shares in ABC Mining at RM0.90 per share (RM1,440). He also pays RM32.95 brokerage fees for buying the shares. In total, John has invested RM1,472.95.
Six months later John decides to sell his shares. He has kept an eye on the performance of ABC Mining and they have risen to RM1.19 a share. John sells his shares for RM1,904. He also pays RM32.95 brokerage fees for selling his shares, leaving him with RM1,871.05. That is a profit of RM398.10.
RM398.10 may not sound a lot, but remember John only invested RM1,472.95 for 6 months, so he won't make a huge return. Nevertheless, John made a 27% profit which is far better than he would have made by putting the money into his savings account.

Scenario 2

May and Chong both work full-time in professional jobs. Together, they earn RM120,000 per year. After mortgage repayments, living and personal expenses May and Chong have managed to put away RM5,000 that they want to now invest in the stock market. They buy 1,500 shares in AAA Steel at RM1.48 a share (RM2,220) and 1,500 shares in XY Manufacturing at RM1.33 a share (RM1,995). They also pay RM65.90 brokerage fees for the two transactions. Their total outlay is RM4,280.90.
Over the next 12 months AAA Steel shares have risen to RM2.60 a share and XY Manufacturing shares have moved to only RM1.38 a share. May and Chong sell their shares for a total of RM5970. They pay their broker RM65.90 and are left with RM5904.10. Their initial investment was RM4,280.90. So, they make a profit of RM1,623.20.

Scenario 3

Aminah is retired, owns her own home and earns a comfortable income from several long term investments. Aminah would like to invest RM15,000 that she has set aside for buying shares.
Aminah selects a portfolio of 5 companies and aims to invest around RM3,000 in each. Aminah buys 3,333 shares in ABC Mining at RM0.90 a share (an investment of RM2,999.70). She also buys 2,027 shares in AAA Steel at RM1.48 a share (RM2,999.96) and 2,255 shares in XY Manufacturing at RM1.33 a share (RM2,999.15). To complete her portfolio, Aminah buys a further 2,912 shares in MM Multimedia at RM1.03 a share (RM2,999.36) and 3,000 shares in BB Furniture at RM1.00 a share (RM3,000). Aminah also pays RM164.75 brokerage fees for buying the shares. In total, Aminah has invested RM1,5162.92.
12 months later Aminah sells her shares. Four of the shares have increased in value but BB Furniture has dropped to RM0.95 a share. ABC Mining rose to RM1.19 a share returning RM3,966.27. AAA Steel rose to RM2.60 a share returning RM5,270.20. XY Manufacturing rose to RM1.38 a share returning RM3,111.90. MM Multimedia rose to RM1.09 a share returning RM3,174.08. BB Furniture dropped to RM0.95 a share returning RM2,850. In total, Aminah's shares returned RM18,372.45 less RM164.75 for brokerage. This gives a total of RM18207.70, earning a profit of RM3,044.78.

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Follow the World Bank procurement guidelines to prevent corruption and abuse

Follow the World Bank procurement guidelines to prevent corruption and abuse


The World Bank has procurement guidelines which all the borrowers of Bank funding have to follow. The guidelines includes the system of calling tenders. It is a system which has helped to prevent corruption even in the most corrupted countries in the world.

Malaysians are getting fed up with the Government’s failure to reform the tender system as well as to check corruption and abuse which is costing us billions of ringgit annually, and bleeding the country’s finances dry.

Although the Government has appointed a Minister, Paul Low, to take charge of the implementation of transparency in the government, it is clear that he is getting nowhere. Senator Paul Low has claimed that he is highly motivated in promoting and implementing new transparency procedures in order to curb corruption and cronyism. Well, being motivated is one thing but running around in circles and establishing another layer of bureaucratic smoke and mirrors has been the main outcome of the Minister’s more than one year in office.

Implement the World Bank’s Procurement Guidelines

From my experience in business there is a simple way to curb corruption, abuse and leakage in Malaysia. This is by totally abandoning the system of negotiated tenders and by having true transparency but not transparency of the Paul Low or MACC bogus kind.

In its place we should follow the guidelines for open tenders and procurement laid down by the World Bank and other international development bodies.

When my colleagues and I successfully bid for a few of the contracts in the huge Muda Irrigation scheme project financed with World Bank funding in the 1960s, this was the system which we had to follow.

The government engaged a reputable engineering consulting firm which has had experience with similar projects to put up a proposal and to open the project bidding to all contractors to tender. The most important thing to note is that the consulting company responsible for the tender process should be independent and should have no interest whatsoever in the project implementation. This ensures that there is no hanky panky or “insider trading”. After the contract is awarded, the consultant makes sure that the project is completed within cost and scheduled time.

All the contractors must be prequalified based on their technical and financial ability. All contractors must submit tenders conforming to the original design so that the cheapest tender can be selected. If all the contractors are prequalified, the government tender board has only to look at the tendered price.

It is important not to allow anybody from the government to negotiate with any contractor to avoid corruption.

Transparency and accountability requires that all documents on the proposal be placed in the public sphere – not just limited information but detailed and full breakdowns in accordance with international best practices. This will ensure public monitoring and curbing of cost overruns which have plagued all mega projects in the country.

On the tender opening day all contractors and the representatives of press should be invited to witness the opening of bids and their tender prices should be publicly announced.

All contractors have to submit their tender according to the original design provided by the appointed consultant.

A contractor can also submit an alternative design provided that the price is cheaper and the quality is not inferior.

Additional Safeguards

Besides the Bank’s guidelines, I would like to propose the following safeguards since open tenders alone will not ensure a fool proof no-abuse procurement system for mega projects. These additional safeguards are based on my experience as a Chartered Engineer and as a member of the Malaysian Board of Engineers for 3 two year terms

Never invite contractors to submit project proposals for any mega project because each contractor will submit his own planning and design which will be impossible for the tender board to evaluate. You cannot compare the cost of an apple with the cost of an orange, a banana or a pineapple.

A contractor should not be permitted to take on the role of the engineering consultant responsible for design as well as that of the role of a construction contractor responsible for the project implementation as the two roles are of conflicting interest. If the company is permitted to do so, it will lead to public perception of abuse and corruption.

For mega projects, it is cheaper to employ a really qualified consultant to design the whole project rather than to ask each contractor to provide designs for different phases. The latter is false economy and will result in ballooning of costs.

Just Say “No” to Negotiated Tenders

In summary, the whole procedure of prequalifying contractors, calling tenders, evaluating and awarding the contracts must be carried out in a transparent way to avoid any suspicion of corruption. Such a system of open procurement is effective and can bring change even to the most corrupt country.

Why is it not followed and why do we still have the system of negotiated tenders which was established by former Prime Minister, Dr. Mahathir, and which opened the door to corruption on a grand scale in the country is a question any fool can answer. It can be safely said that hundreds, if not thousands of billions of ringgit have been lost because of this system of negotiated tenders and its associated abuse and cronyism.

Pakatan State Governments Must Also Say “No”

It is important for the public to ask this question not only for federal government projects but also for state initiated projects of the Pakatan governments. Take for example the recent news report that the construction giant Gamuda Bhd is the favourite to land the job as the project development partner (PDP) to oversee the implementation of key components of the integrated transportation plan on the island of Penang. Firstly, it is clear that Gamuda and all the other companies reported to be in the running for the massive multi-billion dollar project do not have any experience to be in the position of the overall design consultant.

They all are not engineering consultants. They all are construction contractors. Gamuda might have constructed the tunnel in Kuala Lumpur but they did not design it.

Secondly, CIMB Research has found it “pleasantly surprising” that the Penang state government opted for the Project Development Partner (PDP) structure similar to that of the Klang Valley MRT which has been heavily criticised for cronyism and abuse. From the rakyat’s experience, what is “pleasantly surprising” to contractors will definitely be unpleasant and disastrous for the public.

Alarm bells must be raised and concern expressed if such projects are given out even if supposedly on an improved or modified system of negotiated tender. Such a system has been defended by those in power to be more accountable or transparent and free from abuse or corruption. This is patently false.

Conclusion

Nothing less than a truly open, fully transparent and fully accountable tender system and process is, in my opinion, going to work if Malaysia is to check corruption and abuse.

If the Najib administration and Minister Paul Low, and the Pakatan state governments, really want to curb corruption and ensure good governance, accountability and transparency, they should stop farting around. The system to help bring it about is easily available – just follow what I have provided here.

Thursday, October 23, 2014

CIMB shares stumble, speculation of EPF’s next move rife

CIMB shares stumble, speculation of EPF’s next move rife

- See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/business/article/cimb-shares-stumble-speculation-of-key-shareholders-next-move-rife#sthash.RI9oxBTq.dpuf

Shares of Malaysia's second-biggest bank CIMB Group Holdings Bhd dropped today after local media reported that the Employees Provident Fund (EPF), a key CIMB shareholder, may be forced to cut its stake to push through a planned merger.
Analysts say the stock market views the merger of CIMB, RHB Capital Bhd and Malaysia Building Society Bhd (MBSB) as a negative for CIMB, which they fear would be valued too cheaply. The amalgamation of the lenders would create Malaysia's largest bank which financial sources have said could have a market value of US$22 billion (RM72 billion).
CIMB could be valued as high as two times book value based on its growth potential, regional presence and asset quality, but the current deal values CIMB at only 1.7 times book value, according to the analysts. Any sign that the merger may go through would weigh on CIMB's stock, they say.
The stock exchange Bursa Malaysia barred the EPF from voting in the proposed merger because the state pension fund is a major shareholder in all of the banks, according to filings on Tuesday. The EPF, which bankers say is in favour of the merger, owns about 14.5% of CIMB, 41% of RHB and 65% of MBSB.
Local media reported that the EPF may reduce its stake in CIMB, thereby removing the issue of the fund's conflict of interest in the merger.
"There is a lot of speculation in the Malaysian press about what EPF will do next. A lot of that is not correct," said a source close to the merger talks, adding that at this stage, the EPF is unlikely to sell out of CIMB.
Kelvin Ong, a banking analyst at Kuala Lumpur-based MIDF Research, told Reuters that it would not be suitable for the EPF to circumvent the bourse's ban, referring to local media reports.
As of 0242 GMT, shares in CIMB fell 0.78%, RHB dropped 0.35%, while MBSB declined 1.92%. The benchmark stock index rose 0.51%.
The move by the stock exchange has given other investors in the banks more clout and thrown some doubt on the deal's prospects.
Abu Dhabi-based Aabar Investments and OSK Holdings Bhd, the second and third-largest shareholders in RHB, will now have a bigger say in the deal.
Both investors would see their combined voting power in the lender increase to 53% from 31% now that the EPF is barred from voting.
The proposal is for CIMB to enter into a share swap deal with RHB, the country's fourth-biggest lender. CIMB shareholders would own 70% of the merged entity and RHB shareholders would own the rest.
In tandem, the Islamic banking arms of CIMB and RHB would then acquire MBSB to form a mega Islamic bank.
"The deal is relatively in favour to the shareholders of RHB, and not CIMB," Pong Teng Siew, head of research at Kuala Lumpur based Inter-Pacific Research, told Reuters. "Although it sounds like RHB is taking over CIMB, it is actually CIMB buying their assets, and at a premium."
The three banks said they were aiming to sign a agreement in early 2015 and hoped to complete the deal mid-year. – Reuters, October 23, 2014.
- See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/business/article/cimb-shares-stumble-speculation-of-key-shareholders-next-move-rife#sthash.RI9oxBTq.dpuf
Related Posts with Thumbnails