Most investors are short term traders. They look at the quarterly announcements and the price charts but they do not examine what kind of business the company is doing.
For example, when JAKS reported losses in its annual accounts, most of the short term investors just dumped their holdings as if there was no tomorrow.
If you look at JAKS’ announcement on 28th February of its losses, you can see that I bought 6.9 million shares at Rm 1.06 per share. Since then my wife and I have accumulated a total of 138 million shares and became the controlling shareholders.
We bought so much shares because JAKS has secured the contract to build 2 X 600 MW coal fired power plant for Rm 7.6 billion to sell electricity to the Vietnamese Government for 25 years. JAKS has subcontracted the whole project to the Chinese party which has been involved in 90 % of the production of electricity in China.
I know how much profit JAKS will make every year for 25 years as an Independent Power Producer (IPP).
When I was Managing Director of Mudajaya, we built almost all the 19 coal fired power plants in Malaysia as a contractor and not as the owner. As you know, contractors do not make much money. Owners of power plants make fantastic amount of money because they are selling electricity to consumers who have no alternative but to buy from them.
Most of the plants are currently owned by TNB, Tan Sri Syed Mokhtar and Tan Sri Yeoh Tiong Lay. According to the latest report of the top 50 richest men in Malaysia, Yeoh Tiong Lay is No 7 and Syed Mokhtar is NO 10.
As the controlling shareholder, I believe with my long experience in doing business, I can help JAKS to make more profit.
For a start, I will not want the company to tender any more construction contracts. Studies has shown that almost all construction contracts cannot be completed on time. The biggest obstacle that all contractors have to overcome is the open competitive tender system, the cheapest tender gets the contract.
In order to achieve the cheapest price, every tenderer has to be very optimistic while making his estimate. He has to assume that he can get all the required labour and materials at the current prices. He has also to assume that he will not meet inclement weather during construction.
When he is awarded the contract, almost all his assumptions will not come true. Due to inflation and many other reasons, the prices of labour and materials invariable are higher than what he has allowed in his tender. There is also more rain than he has assumed.
Moreover, he has construction difficulties which he did not foresee during tender preparation.
As a result, almost all construction contracts cannot be completed within scheduled time.
In fact, one of JAKS’ contracts is already being penalised for late completion.
After many decades of experience in the contracting industry, I have developed a system or method to complete contracts within programmed time to save cost and avoid penalty for late completion.
JAKS must concentrate on producing electricity business
JAKS must concentrate in getting another contract to build coal fired power plant. As I said earlier, getting contract to build power plant to sell electricity is so profitable, I will help JAKS secure another contract in Myanmar. If you visit Yangon, you can see that almost every shop has a standby diesel power generator because there is a terrific shortage of electricity supply.
About 4 years ago, I arranged Mudajaya to sign a MOU with the Chief Minister of Mandalay to build a coal fired power plant in Mandalay which you can see the photo of the signing ceremony below.
Unfortunately, we could not find a consortium of banks to finance the project. Now with the Chinese partner, I believe I can arrange JAKS to undertake a contract to build a coal fired power plant in Myanmar.
But now, according to CS in an extensive report yesterday, while the 34% decline in Malaysian equities on a dollar-adjusted basis over the past 45 months was warranted, the market bottom may be close at hand.
Calling it as “the ultimate contrarian trade”, the research house outlined 10 reasons to be bullish (see table).
Among them is that Malaysia’s GDP growth may see further upside, thanks to a rebound in commodities. Additionally, the government may have more leeway to increase spending, given its conservative average crude oil price forecast of US$48 per barrel, CS said.
“We believe that the recent stability in the commodity complex we have witnessed the last of the downgrades to near term growth expectations.
“We now expect a pick-up in growth to 4.5% this year (above consensus expectations of 4.3%), driven by public infrastructure projects, commodity-related investments and a boost to rural income from the recovery in rubber prices,” it explained.
Another reason is on the improvement of earnings dynamics among Malaysian corporates. CS points out that at the sector level, the recovery in earnings revisions is led by the energy and mining space.
Additionally, among the larger sectors, consumer discretionary and staples have recovered sharply well into net positive territory with industrials and financials improving to at least neutral levels.
Another key catalyst for the markets is the attractiveness of the ringgit at present levels after significant devaluation.
Although Malaysia’s 15-year trend of a weaker ringgit in real effective exchange rate (REER) terms is justified by the steady erosion of its share of global exports, the 18% REER devaluation over the past three years appears severely overdone, given the relatively modest decline in export share over this period, CS noted.
One prominent beneficiary from the repair in the macro environment appears to be the banking sector, which is a heavyweight component for the FBM KLCI.
The research house said that private sector credit growth had just bounced off a 13-year low at 5.6% year-on-year in January compared to 4.2% in September last year.
“Encouragingly, deposit growth recovering back into positive territory should serve to moderate the pick-up in the loan-to-deposit ratio, which is currently at elevated levels which typically dampens credit extension,” it said.
In light of its market recommendation, CS has picked its top 10 stocks which offer superior dividends and free cashflow yields.