Thursday, October 28, 2010
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Who thought making great looking financial charts could be so easy? We give you the tools, the educational information, the expert opinions, and the support you need to improve your investing. While anyone can use our free tools, subscribers get access to real-time data and much more.
This is the website my friend(over the cyberworld, difficult to call someone a friend) Smartbiz from http://sensecents.blogspot.com/ recommended to me, after few days of reading through, I agree with smartbiz this is one of the best website that teach chart analysis. start with Moving Average. I like the simple description and presentation of the various technical indicators.
You should start reading from:
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
Plantation. O&G and Steel.
Plantation:- TDM, TwsPlant, Rsawit, Swk oil Plams, TSH QL.
O&G: EPIC, Dayang, Handal& Kencana.
Steel: Ann Joo, Lion Industry, Hiap Teck, CSC Steel.
Timber :- Jaya Tiasa, Classic Scenic, Eksons.
Health care:- Topglove, Supermax, Kossan, Faber, KPJ.
East Malaysia:- Sarawak Cable, Cahaya mata, Naim, HSL.
ETP: Zelan ( for trading only), MRCB, AZRB, MahSing, Paramount, Hua Yang.
Transport: AirAsia, Tasco, Airport, Konsort.
Motor:- Tchong, TSM, APM, Proton.
BUY AT YOUR OWN RISK, I DO AGREE WITH SOME BUT NO TIME TO LOOK INTO THE FA AND TA(oh I started learning some TA after my friend Smartbiz post me a good website)
The Rubber Glove Industry
The Pessimistic Outlook … dated Oct 2010
The Malaysian Rubber Glove Manufacturers’ Association’s (Margma) move to urge its members to increase selling prices, which are denominated in US dollars, seems like rain in the dry spell for the glovemakers.
Margma’s statement is an influential one considering that its 45 members collectively supply 60% of the world’s rubber glove demand. According to Margma president KM Lee, the price increment is about 10% to mitigate the effects of costlier raw materials and a weakening US dollar.
In fact, the majority of glove producers, especially the bigger players, have raised prices of their products. The early birds had done so as early as the beginning of 2010, while some initiated price hikes in Sept – Oct 2010.
The 10% increase took into account that latex constituted some 60% of production cost and the 19% rise in natural rubber or latex prices since early 2010.
In reality only 80% of the price increment will be borne by the customers, and the glovemakers will still have to absorb the remaining 20% of price adjustment. This is the common practice in the industry.
So is the 10% price increase enough to cover the rise in costs and to offset the foreign exchange effect caused by the stronger ringgit?
The price of latex rose by 19% from an average of RM6.57 per kg in January 2010 to a high of RM7.79 per kg in late Oct 2010.
Demand for natural rubber is outstripping supply, due to growing consumption of the commodity for tyre production in growing economies, such as China and India’s automotive industries. Also, the pace of natural rubber production is not keeping up with demand. Apart from weather problems, planters are also reluctant to start replanting activities, causing a fall in production yield.
Meanwhile, the ringgit has strengthened 9% to RM3.12 against the US dollar so far till Oct 2010, helped by the inflow of foreign funds.
Industry players said the issues of costlier natural rubber and stronger ringgit were not new to glove manufacturers. However, the real issue is overcapacity due to consistent capacity expansion in anticipation of constant demand growth due to the outbreak of diseases in the past.
Apart from the capacity expansion among the Malaysian players, there are also new glove manufacturers sprouting up in South America.
It remained to be seen if the 10% hike in glove prices was sufficient to cover the higher costs. This takes into consideration that latex rates are still high, and the overcapacity environment within the glove manufacturing fraternity will also reduce plant efficiency.
Players are also undercutting each other.
4Q2010 & 1Q2011 to be tough for the industry in anticipation of weaker quarterly growth.
In view of the overcapacity landscape, it is likely that players will have less bargaining power to pass down the higher cost to buyers.
The Optimistic Outlook … dated Oct 2010
Nonetheless, some industry observers view that concerns about overcapacity, margin and earnings pressure from the normalising of glove demand, high latex prices and weakening US dollar have all gone overboard.
It concurs that the slowdown in demand, coupled with slower-than-expected cost pass-through due to high latex prices and the weak US dollar, could lead to a continuation of the weak earnings trend for the glove makers. But this is a temporary situation as growing hygiene awareness and increase in healthcare spending should give glove demand a big helping hand.
The glove demand growth is still deemed healthy and glovemakers’ pricing power would still allow them to pass on the additional costs to customers, albeit, with a time lag of one to two months.
Higher latex prices had prompted anticipation of lower demand for natural rubber gloves, and vice-versa should latex prices decline.
Going forward, dynamics in the glove manufacturing industry will be closely watched given the current challenging operating landscape. It will be interesting to see how the players execute their revenue-growth and cost-cutting strategies as they contend with the headwinds.
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
The CPO Industry
Optimistic Outlook … dated Oct 2010
The CPO prices are close to rm3000 per tonne level. With CPO on an uptrend, plantation stocks enjoyed a strong flow of funds.
The spike in CPO prices came after the release of a report by the US Department of Agriculture on Oct 8, 2010, which downgraded its forecast of soyabean harvests in North America.
Soyabean output in the US is expected to be lower than projected in Sept 2010 but higher than last year. Rainfall in Aug 2010 failed to boost yields, prompting the government to reduce its acreage estimates.
While weather concerns gave largely driven commodity prices till Oct 2010, market observers say the soyabean supply crunch certainly took the market by surprise as the report changed the outlook for oilseeds for the next six months (Oct 2010 – April 2011).
The report caused soyabean oil prices to jump as concerns over tight supply hit the market. Given that CPO prices move in tandem with soyabean oil prices, things are certainly looking for palm oil, at least in the near term.
CPO prices may be ripe for a further upswing, given the USDA’s downgrade of soyabean crop estimates and the threat to oilseed and edible oil supplies posed by the ongoing. This also coincides with anticipated drop in palm oil yields in 4Q2010 and 1Q2011 due to last years (2009) drought.
An upgrading of CPO prices also led to upgrading the FY2010/FY2012 earnings of all the planters. The PER of big cap planters in Malaysia is at 16 times.
Industry players are bullish about the sector for the next six months (Oct 2010 – April 2011), with a preference for planters with pure CPO play. The stocks will definitely be on uptrend. And should the US carry out its second round of quantitative easing. It will bring liquidity into the market and push prices even higher. But the fundamentals are there to support the share price rallies.
Now (Oct 2010), the tide has turned, plantation stocks in the region are seeing the return of foreign interest.
However, Malaysian plantation stocks may not attract the same kind of attention from foreign investors as they are trading at a premium to their Singapore and Indonesian peers. The PERs of the plantation stocks in Malaysia are in the high teens while those of the Singapore and Indonesian planters are around 13 times to 15 times.
Nonetheless, with the economy picking up and what looks like the start of a strong rally in the plantation stocks, foreign funds looking for exposure in the local index may start considering these counters.
News report say that CPO might rise to RM3600 per tonne by 1Q2011due to potential shortfall in supply. CPO may hit all time high of RM4486 in March 2008. While this level may not be on the horizon. Certain factors will keep CPO prices at a high level.
Strong growth in the emerging markets and an increase in biodiesel mandates will likely boost demand. The upside potential of CPO prices may also be fuelled in the near term by soyabean production risks in South America.
The discount at which CPO is trading to soyabean oil has widened to a historical average of US$120 per tonne, which could also lift demand for CPO in the near term.
Meanwhile Malaysia’s palm oil exports rose by 21.16% to 1.47 million tonnes in September 2010 against the previous month. Year-on-year (yoy), the palm oil export for Sept 2010 reflected a 10.9% climb compared with the same month last year.
Malaysia’s palm oil exports are expected to reach RM65.2bil this year from RM49.5bil in 2009.
Also, the latest monthly statistics for released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board showed the exports of palm kernel oil increased by 41.44% to 114,224 tonnes, palm kernel cake rose by 95.54% to 252, 749 tonnes and biodiesel advanced 11% to 10,011 tonnes for September 2010 on a month-on-month (m-o-m) basis.
Only oleochemicals exports slid, going down by 7.16% to 170,521 tonnes in September 2010 m-o-m.
But the increase in exports did not entirely correspond with the country’s palm oil inventory where the total palm oil stock in September 2010 marginally increased by 0.23% to 1.71 million tonnes m-o-m. Also, crude palm oil (CPO) stock rose by 18.88% to 929,225 tonnes in September 2010 m-o-m.
But this inventory could be counter balanced by the lower production of palm oil in general that included CPO, palm kernel, crude palm kernel oil and palm kernel cake in September 2010 against the previous month. CPO production went down by 2.72% to 1.56 million tonnes last month against August.
By Murali Krishna PV, CEO of India-based Transgraph Consulting Pvt Ltd … dated Oct 2010
Continued growing demand coupled with lower production and weather factors are expected to lift crude palm oil (CPO) prices to the RM3,300-level in the next four to six months (Oct 2010 & Beyond).He projects the global production of palm oil to decline by 2.41 million tonnes in 2011 while the demand for palm oil is estimated to grow 8% to 10% annually.However the uptrend in CPO would be met with intermittent seasonal corrections due to crop arrival pressure.With the growing per capita income in China and India, demand from these two countries for CPO could reach 37 million tonnes and 26 million tonnes respectively in the next few years (2010 & Beyond). In 2013, there is going to be a major bull run which is already underway.
He expects crude oil to trade on the upside from now (Oct 2010) till March 2011, potentially hitting US$90 a barrel with the downside at US$70. Crude oil could cross the US$100 mark after March 2011.
By CIMB … dated Oct 2010
PALM oil prices are heading towards the RM3,400 mark by the second half of next year (2011) on the back of a bullish run by vegetable oils in the global market,It expects prices to touch RM3,400 per tonne in the first quarter of 2011, but cautioned that it is important to have prices at RM2,800 per tonne in the short term.
Pessimistic Outlook … dated Oct 2010
Factors that may curb the uptrend of crude palm oil (CPO) price in the near term could be the release of higher-than-expected October 2010 production numbers, improved soya bean planting in South America due to better weather conditions, a stronger US dollar or if China revalues its currency, said plantation analysts.
A bearish factor that may hamper the upward movement in CPO price is the release of the October 2010 on Nov 2010 production numbers. An increase in production numbers may see prices cooling. CPO production was 1.56 million tonnes for September against 1.61 million tonnes for August 2010.
The price reversal could take place should there be improved soya bean planting in South America. With improved planting, this may mean a higher consumption of soy oil in the place of palm oil. This might be the case as weather conditions in the United States and South American countries saw further improvement over the next two months (Nov – Dec 2010).
Whether the plantation index will continue upwards will largely depend on the movement of CPO prices.
Meanwhile, should the US dollar strengthen, CPO prices would come off. Commodities, which are priced in the greenback, become less attractive to buyers who use foreign currencies as the dollar strengthens. The rise in all soft commodities is more a function of a weaker US dollar rather than the fundamentals of commodities.
Another consideration will be the outcome of the G20 meeting. Should China look to revalue its currency, then all bets are off”. China has come under external pressure to increase the value of its currency to alleviate pressure on foreign economies by boosting their exports and reducing trade deficits.
Lan Chen, an economist at UK-based LMC International … dated Oct 2010
He disagreed with the bullish outlook for CPO. While CPO prices had generally followed the level of stocks back in the years before 2007 and then tracked the trend of crude oil prices post-2007, recent trends showed that CPO price movements were very much tied to the price of soybean and soybean oil.US soybean oil, which is a direct substitute of CPO, “is more than US$100 (a tonne) overpriced in the US biodiesel market.” This will place downward pressure on soybean oil which in turn will pressurise palm oil prices even more.Additionally, Chen expects MPOB’s stocks of CPO to peak at 2.25 million tonnes next year (2011), without giving a specific timeframe for the estimate. The output will be strong in 2011. In the end, if use today (Oct 2010)’s US dollar exchange rate and petrol price, the CPO price will be RM2,500 to RM2,600.
Monday, October 25, 2010
I dont think so, nevermindlah, as long as I can make money.
FROM THE EDGE DAILY
KUALA LUMPUR: ALAM MARITIM RESOURCES BHD
It's share price advanced on Monday, Oct 25 after Maybank Investment Bank Bhd Research (Maybank IB) maintained its hold call on the stock with target price RM1.15 and said it was positive on the company's partnership with the Yayasan Sabah Group.At 9.35am, Alam was up five sen to RM1.12 with 783,000 shares traded.Alam Maritim entered into memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Yayasan Sabah Shipping Sdn Bhd, a unit of Yayasan Sabah Group with a view to form a joint venture (JV) company.
Alam Maritim said the JV would be involved in the provision of services including offshore installation CONSTRUCTION marine operations, and subsea works to the energy industry in Sabah.
MAYBANK Investment Bank Bhd Research (Maybank IB) maintained its hold call on ALAM MARITIM RESOURCES BHD [
] at RM1.07 and target price RM1.15 and said it was positive on the company's partnership with Yayasan Sabah Group.It said the partnership creates a Sabah-based O&G company and sends out a strong signal of intent to capitalise on O&G opportunities in the state. "The SOGT [Sabah Oil and Gas Terminal] and pipe-laying projects would be among the jobs that it could target. "Maintain Hold with a RM1.15 target price, based on 10 times 2011 EPS," it said in a note on Monday, Oct 25
Saturday, October 23, 2010
2010 CPR Guidelines
How the American Heart Association's CPR Guidelines Have Changed for 2010
By Rod Brouhard, About.com Guide
Updated October 18, 2010
After a review of the available research published over a 5 year period, the American Heart Association released its 2010 CPR Guidelines. As expected, the focus for CPR is on good quality chest compressions. Here are the differences between the 2005 and the 2010 CPR Guidelines:
* A-B-C is for babies; now it's C-A-B!
It used to be follow your ABC's: airway, breathing and chest compressions. Now, Compressions come first, only then do you focus on Airway and Breathing. The only exception to the rule will be newborn babies, but everyone else -- whether it's infant CPR, child CPR or adult CPR -- will get chest compressions before you worry about the airway.
Why did CPR change from A-B-C to C-A-B?
* No more looking, listening and feeling.
The key to saving a cardiac arrest victim is action, not assessment. Call 911 the moment you realize the victim won't wake up and doesn't seem to be breathing right.
Trust your gut. If you have to hold your cheek over the victim's mouth and carefully try to detect a puff of air, it's a pretty good bet she's not breathing very well, if at all.
I have a secret to share: paramedics have been doing it this way for years. Rarely have I seen an EMT or a paramedic put her ear to a victim's nose and listen for air movement. We just get to work.
* Push a little harder. How deep you should push on the chest has changed for adult CPR. It was 1 1/2 to 2 inches, but now the Heart Association wants you to push at least 2 inches deep on the chest.
* Push a little faster. AHA changed the wording here, too. Instead of pushing on the chest at about 100 compressions per minute, AHA wants you to push at least 100 compressions per minute. At that rate, 30 compressions should take you 18 seconds.
Besides the changes under the 2010 CPR Guidelines, AHA continues to emphasize some important points:
* Hands Only CPR. This is technically a change from the 2005 Guidelines, but AHA endorsed this form of CPR in 2008. The Heart Association still wants untrained lay rescuers to do Hands Only CPR on adult victims who collapse in front of them. My biggest problem with this campaign is what's left unsaid. What does AHA want untrained lay rescuers to do with all the other victims? In other words, what do you do with the victims that aren't adults or that didn't collapse right in front of you? AHA doesn't provide an answer, but I have a suggestion: Do Hands Only CPR, because doing something is always better than doing nothing.
* Recognize sudden cardiac arrest. CPR is the only treatment for sudden cardiac arrest and AHA wants you to notice when it happens.
* Don't stop pushing. Every interruption in chest compressions interrupts blood flow to the brain, which leads to brain death if the blood flow stops too long. It takes several chest compressions to get blood moving again. AHA wants you to keep pushing as long as you can. Push until the AED is in place and ready to analyze the heart. When it is time to do mouth to mouth, do it quick and get right back on the chest
Union hopes to dissuade EPF contributors
PETALING JAYA: The Malaysian Trades Union Congress (MTUC) has called on the 10 million contributors to the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) not to participate in the proposed Private Pension Fund (PPF) as returns for their investment are not guaranteed. (most of us already not happy with the returns of 5 to 5.75% from EPF,what else with returns that are not GUARANTEED!!!!)
"The returns would depend on market forces, and this was very risky for the contributors because they might lose all their savings," said MTUC secretary-general G. Rajasegaran.(VERY VERY TRUE)
He disclosed that insurance companies had been lobbying for such a fund for a long time, and the MTUC had objected to it and the EPF board upheld the MTUC's concern.
"Now, however, it appears that the insurance lobbyists have succeeded, based on the announcement by the finance ministry that the Government had agreed to appoint insurance companies to handle the fund," he said Wednesday.
Rajasegaran was commenting on a statement by the ministry's economic and international division under-secretary, Datuk Dr Mohd Irwan Serigar Abdullah, that EPF dividends would be gradually scaled down to encourage contributors to bring their money to the PPF. (@#$%^&* DONT EVER COME TO DISTURB OUR EPF CONTRIBUTION!)
Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak announced during the tabling of the 2011 Budget last Friday that the Government would launch the PPF next year for the benefit of private sector employees and the self-employed. (What benefit?show me the figure first!)
Najib said the existing income tax relief of up to RM6,000 for an employee's contributions to the EPF would be extended to the contributions made to the PPF, including for those self-employed.
Rajasegaran said in view of this new development, the MTUC would soon launch an aggressive nationwide campaign to educate workers and encourage them to reject the PPF. (fast fast fast, please.)
In the meantime, he said the MTUC was seeking an urgent meeting with the ministry to discuss the PPF and its long-term implication for the workers, especially their well-being in old age. - Bernama
Friday, October 22, 2010
AirAsia extended the term of its cooperation agreement with Tune Talk Sdn Bhd (TTSB) up to July 27, 2011 to generate extra revenue and further boost the low-cost carrier's branding. Under the terms of the agreement, AirAsia would continue selling any unsold TTSB SIM cards; allow TTSB to continue redeeming unused e-gift vouchers; continue utilising the various advertising platforms; and continue AirAsia's entitlement to be remunerated with a 5% sale commission on total top-up sales.
TTSB is 23.42% owned by Tune Ventures Sdn Bhd, in which both Datuk Seri Tony Fernandes and Datuk Kamarudin bin Meranun are substantial shareholders. The low-cost carrier has also been in focus lately after several analysts raised their target price and earnings estimates on it. - Analyst raised their target price for the low-cost carrier following the release of its preliminary 3Q operating statistics on Tuesday, which saw revenue passengers kilometre (RPK) increasing 26.6% from a year earlier.
MBSB’s net profit for the nine months ended Sept 30, 2010 surged to RM133.21 million from RM66.91 million a year earlier, due mainly to higher loan and financing income, especially from the expansion of personal financing and higher other operating income from personal financing activities. These were partly set off by higher operating expenses and higher loan loss impairment, it said in a filing to Bursa Malaysia on Thursday, Oct 21.
MBSB chief executive officer Datuk Ahmad Zaini Othman said the company’s sustainability of its profit for the current quarter was due to the right strategies adopted.
Tuesday, October 19, 2010
from the star
Tips for first-time house buyers
BUYING a house for the first time is like getting married. You need to be level headed, think wisely, plan well and eliminate the chances of regretting the decision later.
For first-time house buyers, scouring the market for a suitable property can be exhilarating but it can also be frustrating if you don’t find “the one” or you do but it comes with a bust-your-budget price tag.
There are a few factors to consider in the pursuit of buying your first dream house. Firstly, a prospective house buyer should ascertain how much upfront money he or she can fork out, says SK Brothers Realty Sdn Bhd general manager Chan Ai Cheng.
“This is important. There are heavy upfront costs depending on what you buy, including transfer cost, legal fees and so forth,” she says.
Secondly, the prospective buyer needs to check with the bank on the amount of loan that can be secured based on the income level. “At the same time, try to have savings amounting to at least three to six months of loan instalments plus household expenses as reserve fund, in case of an emergency,” Chan says.
In short, if you want to buy a house, you need to figure out your affordability – how much you can afford.
A real estate agent tells StarBizWeek that the rule of thumb is that monthly loan repayments should not exceed one third of the gross monthly income.
“In assessing your repayment capability, the financial institution would also take into account your other debt repayments such as car loan, personal loan and credit cards,” he says.
He adds that the margin of financing can go as high as 95%.
“The higher the margin, the higher you will have to pay per instalment. Plus, at a given rate, a shorter tenure will require you to pay higher instalment,” he says.
He adds that after you have set your finances right, make a list of features you are looking for in a house.
“Be sure that the house you are buying is big enough to meet all your future needs, in case you have additional members in the family,” he says.
“Take good note of the area and the neighbourhood as these aspects will play a crucial role in determining the price of the house in case you want to sell it in future,” he adds.
In terms of financing, buyers have a wide array to choose from be it conventional or Islamic.
Under the conventional financing, one’s outstanding loan consists of principal plus the interest charged.
“The interest is actually the financial institution’s cost in obtaining the funds. Islamic financing works on the concept of buying and selling where the financial institution purchases the property and subsequently sells it to you above the purchase price,” says a banker.
As for the loan tenure, it can range from anything up to 30 years or until the borrower reaches the age of 65, whichever is earlier.
She also advises that it’s better to buy than to rent a home as the latter is largely expense without equity.
Furthermore, she says: “When you invest in a home, it offers the possibility for appreciation in value. At the same time, the equity becomes yours when you’re still paying off your mortgage. You even get to live in it while your investment matures.”
Still, the key determinant ought to always be keeping within the budget.
“That’s most important. It’s easy to be swayed into wanting a bigger home or a bungalow just because your friends or someone else has one. This is nice to wish for but definitely not practical if it’s way out of your budget. Be realistic,” the banker says.
Ask on the “right” timing to buy a house, she says there is no “right” time to buy or sell anymore.
“If you find a home now, don’t try to second-guess the interest rates or the housing market by waiting. Changes do not usually occur fast enough to make that much difference in price and a good home will not stay on the market long,” she says.
Saturday, October 16, 2010
I don"t really like!!!
I support fully the ONE MALAYSIA slogan but come to the basic, like everyone of you out there I am still a basic moneyminded lay person,thus when I dont see money into my pocket instead trying to steal money from me, I am not happy!
If you want to read all the good news or all leaders' great great response just go to the star and click
So many of them !tired of reading.
But I am someone that like to read negative news,reading between the lines, look at things at different angles.......basically it is a budget that will benefit mainly the government servant but not those working at the private sector,they got hardly anything.
WHAT !NO Personnal TAX RATE CUT!
WHAT!INCREASE SERVICE TAX BY ANOTHER 1%(better eating at home or at hawkers centre from now)
WHAT!WATCHING ASTRO HAVE TO PAY 6% SERVICE TAX!
WHAT!ANOTHER 100-storey skyscraper RM5billion WARISAN MERDEKA!
Friday, October 15, 2010
Thursday, October 14, 2010
KL shares traded higher in early session
Share prices on Bursa Malaysia were higher in early trading today with the benchmark index breaking the 1,500-point psychological barrier.
After 25 minutes of trading, the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) rose 3.87 points to 1,500.84.
A dealer said continued buying in selected bluechips especially plantation-related stocks helped the key index to start the day in a strong note. "Investors continue to snap up plantation stocks as they are bullish about the earnings of plantation-related companies following the higher CPO prices," he said.
He said market sentiment remained firm ahead of Budget 2011 to be tabled tommorow. At 9.25am, the Finance Index gained 24.74 points to 13,544.96, the Plantation Index increased 98.96 points to 7,360.02 and the Industrial Index added 7.74 points to 2,876.80.
The FBM Emas Index advanced 33.76 points to 10,103.04, the FBM70 perked up 61.65 points to 10,142.96 and the FBM Ace Index added 34.83 points to 4,190.44. Volume stood at 155.636 million shares worth RM156.824 million, with gainers leading losers by 265 to 76, while 197 counters were unchanged and 29 suspended.
Among active stocks, JCY International lost two sen to RM1.08 while Green Packet-Warrants rose four sen to 44.5 sen. TA Global gained 2.5 sen to 47 sen, IRM Group increased 4.5 sen to 43.5 sen and Time dotCom added one sen to 65 sen. Among heavyweights Maybank earned one sen to RM9.02, Sime Darby gained five sen to RM8.90, while CIMB Group shed one sen to RM8.06. -- Bernama
Wednesday, October 13, 2010
though he admits it is almost impossible for topglove to sustain such a fantasic rate of growth, glove stocks still moving upwards for the past few days........take a look at the three BIG,
topglove 5.72, Harta 5.33, and Supermax4.52 ......really on huge recovery!Market still strong ,damn strong, everyday up,up,up when everyone expecting a sharp dive coming,really coming?I don't so now.
I am not interested in gloves anymore, focus mainly on property stocks, I like stocks that have projects in Penang(then I can go for a site seeing) like SPsetia, Mahsing, E&O, someone mention sunrise.....any projects in Penang?
sometimes make me wonder what is the point of reading so many analyst's report,is it to gain knowledge or to gain insight when deciding to buy/sell/hold (these three terms are too simple for me to comprehend and I tend to read it the otherway round buy=hold, hold=sell, sell=may be buy, haha)a stock?Or just for the fun of reading before getting bore with life, oh actually I have better things to do.
Yesterday I just posted a NEUTRAL CALL 's report from ECMLIBRA and today the top gainers make up of so many plantation stocks!
Tuesday, October 12, 2010
September MPOB statistics
· Production declines 2.7% m-o-m
September production came in slightly weak m-o-m as expected given the Eid celebrations that took place during the month. On a cumulative basis, 9MCY10 production is up some 1.6% from 9MCY09. Looking into October, we expect that there could be a spike in production, but not one
as pronounced as was seen in 2009 (see figure 3). This is so because we view that the effects of the El Nino in 1QCY10 are taking a toll on yields and also that La Nina readings have become exceedingly high of late (see figure 7).
· Y-o-y export growth from Pakistan, US, EU and Egypt
Contrary to the belief that China has been driving export growth this year, it appears that exports to Pakistan, US, EU and Egypt are taking the lead instead. 9MCY10 exports to China are actually down 8.4% while exports to the said 4 countries have surged 11%, 14.6%, 18.4% and a whopping 58.4% respectively. Egypt alone took a record 161k mt of palm oil in September alone. To note, cumulative 9MCY10 exports are up 6.4% y-o-y and m-o-m export growth closed up 21%.
· Stock levels remain status quo at 1.7m mt
Stock levels were flat in September given that production still rose and that exports were coming from a low base. With our projection that October production won’t be as high and exports continue to be strong, the rise in stock levels next month may not reach safe levels (>2m mt) to take the industry through the year end festive season and the oncoming production down cycle.
· Sector call under review
September statistics changes our take on the sector to be more CPO price positive. Already, CPO prices nearly hit RM3,000 per mt yesterday, largely fuelled by the USDA report on trouble with soy supplies. YTD MPOB price now averages is RM2,540 per mt. We view that this situation could see CPO prices continue into strength and hence inducing strong corporate results in 4QCY10 and potentially stronger CY11 numbers. Our Neutral call on the sector and target prices of stocks under coverage are under review.
GENTING PLANT HOLD
full report please refer to ECMLIBRA & MPOB
Monday, October 11, 2010
· Construction index creeps upwards
The FBM KLCI Index and KL Construction Index both gained 1% to end at 1481.41 points and 265.85 points respectively last week. EPF accumulated 0.17% or 3.7m shares in Gamuda amid a 4% decline in share price. However, major institutional funds sold a combined 17m shares, or 1.3% in IJM as prices climbed 2.1%. Sunway Holding’s share price continued its strong performance, ending 3.6% higher for the week.
· Notable construction news
Circulating news of an RM15.6bn bid by MMC Corporation to take over UEM Group has created a flurry of excitement early last week. It was reported that MMC Corp is proposing to lead a consortium involving the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) and Permodalan Nasional Bhd (PNB) to acquire UEM via a special purpose vehicle, in which MMC would have a 40% stake, while EPF and PNB would hold 30% each. It was later confirmed that a preliminary proposal to take over UEM Group had been submitted to the government by MMC Corp. While the quantum was not divulged, MMC has revealed that they have not approached either EPF or PNB to be their partners. At Kumpulan Jetson, the Naza Group’s SM Nasarudin and SM Faliq have resigned from their executive positions, a further indication of their rumoured intentions of disposing their 33.2% stake in the company. However, both will remain on Jetson’s board as non-executive, nonindependent directors. Another executive director, Chow Chee Kin, is also
expected to be redesignated. After months of waiting, Mudajaya has finally seen development on the Securities Commission’s (SC) queries into the affairs related to its power plant project in Chhattisgarh, India. The SC remanded the company for ‘round-tripping’ practices and issued a ‘Caution and Reminder’ to observe its disclosure obligations. Concurrently, Mudajaya also announced the signing of a memorandum of understanding with the government of Laos
for a hydroelectric power project.
· Contracts awarded
WCT won the largest contract last week after securing the RM486m buildoperate- transfer concession for the Integrated Complex at the new Low Cost Carrier Terminal at Sepang.
· Maintain Neutral
We are turning positive on Gamuda in view of expected contract news flow for the MRT project. We note however, that allocation for physical infrastructure is lower under the 10MP. Although set off by numerous projects to be undertaken on a public private partnership (PPP) model, its positive impact is stock specific as certain companies may find difficulty securing financing under a PPP model. Our top pick is Sunway Holdings which is trading at undemanding forward PE of 8.7 times.
full report please get it from ECMLIBRA
IOI to delay launch of Sentosa Cove projects: CitiCitigroup Research says it is removing the Sentosa Seaview and The Pinnacle Collection projects from its immediate three-year forecasts
Axiata: Maintain buy, target price RM5.30MIDF Research expects that growth for Axiata Group Bhd (6888) will come from its overseas market, especially Indonesia and Bangladesh.
SapuraCrest: Buy, target price RM3.09Kenanga Research remains positive of SapuraCrest Petroleum Bhd (8575) given its locked-in prospects.
Kencana Petroluem : Buy, target price RM2.00
BToto: Buy, target price RM4.50OSK Research has maintained its "buy" call on Berjaya Sports Toto Bhd, but lowered its target Read more:
Friday, October 8, 2010
OSK anticipates that Top Glove's first quarter 2011 outlook will be affected by rising latex prices and the weakening of the US dollar and ringgit
Although financial year 2010 was within expectations, Top Glove Corp's (7113) fourth quarter of the same financial year was affected by unfavourable external factors such as rising latex prices and the weakening of the US dollar and ringgit."We anticipate that its first quarter 2011 outlook will not be much different as we think the latex prices and exchange rates will continue to be unfavourable," OSK said.The research house said this will be offset by the stocking up of activities by its customers. (No, I dont think this can be offset satisfactorily)
Top Glove's customers may potentially carry out restocking rather than risk a further hike in selling prices when the rubber trees experience the wintering season, thus causing lower latex production(so the sales will increase but profit margin will still be low as it takes at least 2-3 month to partially pass the increase in cost to the customers).On a year-to-date comparison, both the financial year 2010 revenue and net profit were higher by 36 per cent and 45 per cent respectively following the higher sales and produc-tion capacity of examination gloves.
another article worth reading Stronger ringgit, costlier latex hit glove makers
Thursday, October 7, 2010
read it at the smartbiz blog
Top Glove Corp yesterday said the industry is likely to consolidate as demand slows and costs rise but rivals think this is easier said than done. But industry players mainly agree that the sector’s big six, in terms of capacity, are likely to lead in takeovers of smaller rivals and not do deals between them. Rubber glove makers are facing slower demand growth as global fears over a pandemic flu disease subsides. Costlier latex and a weak US dollar are also affecting sales. Although takeovers seem attractive, there are hurdles like finding strategic fits and the challenge of combining different company cultures.
* In an interview with Business Times yesterday, Latexx Partners head of corporate services Dr Liew Lai Lai admitted her company is an attractive target but denied the company is up for sale to Top Glove. “Yes, they did visit us but it remains a market rumour. We have been receiving a few enquiries all along, it is not just Top Glove. While we’re open to a merger or acquisition, so far, we don’t see a strategic fit that would be mutually beneficial,” she said.
*Kossan Rubber senior manager of group corporate affairs Edward Yip said his company is only open to a deal if it results in value creation. “Bigger does not necessarily mean better. What matters is the bottom line. There has got to be consistent profits, productivity improvement and growth prospects. If a merger creates a bigger company but destroys value, what for?”
* Hartalega Holdings group managing director Kuan Kam Hon concurred and said consolidation among the top six is difficult “because all of us are strong individuals with our own set ways of doing business.” “We don’t see this happening at the moment. On paper it looks logical but in reality there are many hidden hindrance,” he said. (BT)
The news on consolidation is not entirely new. Among all the big six manufacturers that we cover, Top Glove, the industry leader, is the only company that is aggressively on the look out for acquisition in order to expand its market share. The current tough operating environment could provide opportunity for Top Glove to acquire a smaller competitor given that it now has RM299.5m net cash in hand.
BUY CALL BY CITIGROUP
DOWNGRADE BY MIDF
FROM HWANG DBS
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
Top 5 Tips to Build Wealth and Success
Peter Gorenstein and Farnoosh Torabi Tuesday, October 5, 2010
Warren Buffett is worth $45 billion. That wealth isn't only a factor of savvy investing and good business — the "Oracle of Omaha" is also known as a penny pincher. Buffett still lives in the same Omaha, Neb., home he bought in 1958 for $31,500.
Follow his frugal formula, and you too may wind up with a lot more money than you ever dreamed.
This week Financially Fit covers five tips to build wealth and success.
1. Live Below Your Means.
Being wealthy isn't just a product of your salary or investment prowess; it's learning how to save.
"We can make a lot of money, you can make a little bit of money, but the second you spend all the money is when people get into trouble. Saving is the key to preserving your wealth," says Ed Butowsky, managing partner of Chapwood Capital Investment Management, a firm that manages money for wealthy individuals.
As many Americans realized during the booming real estate market, just because you think you can afford something doesn't mean you should buy it. Keeping an eye on your bottom line will pay dividends over the long term.
2. Bounce Back From Defeat
With nearly 15 million workers unemployed right now in the U.S., it's easy to get discouraged. Don't! Most successful and wealthy people have overcome obstacles and failure along the way. Steve Jobs was ousted from Apple when he was 30. Today, he's a billionaire and a legend. Plus, after getting fired, he created another billion-dollar media company, Pixar.
"Bouncing back from defeat is something all great achievers have. They have this undying belief good things will happen and will continue to happen," says Butowsky.
Take Michael Jordan. "His airness" was cut from his high school basketball team. Motivated by the rejection, Jordan became a star the next season. The rest is history.
Regardless of the profession, the rich and successful tend to have a strong sense of self-worth — key to skillfully navigating an upward career path. Mark Hurd, who was ousted as CEO of Hewlett-Packard in August, couldn't be kept down for long. Using his business skills and connections, in September, Hurd was named president of Oracle. (Hurd and Oracle founder Larry Ellison are known to be close friends.)
4. Have Street Smarts
Bernie Madoff lived the high life for decades, scamming unsuspecting clients, with a money-making formula that proved too good to be true. Only afterward did we learn that with a little due diligence, most clients could have easily uncovered the fraud.
But it's not only the swindlers and the con men you have to watch out for. Many times, friends and family take advantage of the rich. Whether it's a handout or an investment idea, Butowsky advises his high net worth clients that in most cases, it's wisest to just say "no." The best way to do that: have someone else do it for you.
"You need to really set up a wall between you and your family," he advises. "If you don't want to give them (family or friends) money ... saying no is probably a good idea."
5. Buy Cheap
The rich can afford to splurge, but that doesn't mean they do.
John Paulson, a billionaire hedge fund manager, bought his Hamptons "dream house at a bargain basement price," according to Greg Zuckerman, author of the Paulson-based book, "The Greatest Trade Ever." The story has it that Paulson eyed the home while it was in foreclosure. Finally, on a rain-soaked day, he purchased the home on the Southampton town hall steps. He was the only bidder.
On New York City's Upper East Side, Michael's— The Consignment Shop for Women— has been a bargain-hunting destination for more than 60 years. "We have a good percentage of women who can afford to shop on Madison Avenue but really like the idea of saving that money," says proprietor Tammy Gates.
From Chanel to Gucci and Louis Vuitton, the store specializes in high-end designer merchandise for a reasonable price. Speaking of her clientele, Gates says, "they're wealthy for a reason. They recognize that bargains keep people wealthy. Paying top dollar when you don't have to doesn't make sense."
China MOU lapsed CONSTRUCTION
· Enters into MOU for a China property venture
Sunway announced yesterday that its memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the XuanCheng Municipal Government has lapsed and the company does not intend to enter into a definitive agreement. Recalled that Sunway had on 6 May 2010 entered into the MOU with
XuanCheng Municipal Government for the purpose of developing an integrated city, consisting of an international-standard entertainment park, exhibition centre, hotels, shopping malls, offices and residential units on land to be acquired from XuanCheng Municipal Government.
XuanCheng is a prefecture-level city in southeastern Anhui province, People's Republic of China. It lies 260 km to the west of Shanghai. Bordering the provinces of Jiangsu and Zhejiang, it covers an area of 12,340 sq km and has a population of 2.8m.
We are concerned of this setback as we were not bullish on this venture. In terms of economic development, Anhui province lags behind that of its neighbour, Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Furthermore, industrial activities in Anhui province are mainly concentrated in Maanshan and Wuhu, rather than XuanCheng. We noted that GDP per capita of XuanCheng is RMB13,051 as compared to Sunway’s maiden property venture in Jiangyin, Jiangsu province which has GDP per capita of RMB91,538.
· Reiterate BUY call
Sunway remains our top BUY for the construction sector. This is premised
on (1) strong earnings growth of 67.6% in FY10, (2) undemanding forward
P/E valuation of 8.6x, (3) more landbank acquisition in the pipeline, and
(4) strength in securing overseas construction contracts. Our target price,
which is based on 10x P/E on mid FY11 EPS, remains unchanged at
RM2.61 as impact on FY11 earnings is negligible. Sum-of-parts valuation
full report refer to ECM
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
Shareholders of Hong Leong Bank Bhd (HLBK MK, Hold, TP: RM9.12) passed the resolution for the acquisition of the assets and liabilities of EON Capital Bhd for RM5.06bn at its EGM. HLBB’s MD and CEO Yvonne Chia added that she could not comment con EONCap’s ongoing court case. “Whatever happens, we are waiting for the due process and we are positive about it,” she told. On whether HLBB would extend its 30 Nov deadline for EONCap to accept its takeover offer
should the court case turn out to be longer than expected, HLBB’s non-ED said it was “too premature to comment at this stage”. (Financial Daily)
MMC :confirms UEM bid, awaiting government decision
MMC Corp Bhd said that it had submitted a preliminary proposal to the federal government to acquire UEM Group Bhd but had yet to receive “any indication” from the government on its proposal. “MMC will lead a consortium for the proposed acquisition and to date, we have not approached the Employees Provident Fund and / or Permodalan Nasional Bhd to be
our partners,” MMC said in a reply to a query to Bursa Malaysia. MMC is understood to have submitted its proposal to the Ministry of Finance in Aug. The move is seen as a “circuitous” way for MMC to acquire the toll road concessionaire, Plus Expressway Berhad (PLUS MK, Hold, TP: RM4.36). (Financial Daily)
E&O: Makes Penang Turf Club bidding list
Two foreign property development companies – one based in Singapore and another in Hong Kong – and Eastern & Oriental Bhd are among seven candidates shortlisted to bid for the new Penang Turf Club (PTC) development project. Most of the remaining candidates are headquartered in Kuala Lumpur. Those shortlisted for the tender have the option of buying
the 23.09ha site for RM200 per sq ft or developing the site jointly with PTC. It is learnt that those who submitted for the second round of bidding, which closed on 30 Sep had to pay a tender deposit of RM500,000. When contacted, E&O’s ED confirmed the group had submitted a bid in relation to the PTC land. The gross development value of the project was estimated at around RM1.5bn, based on the present market value of the PTC land of about RM500m, the sources said. (StarBiz)
Monday, October 4, 2010
some of the highlights from my remiser comments:
Construction (Overweight) -
Major winner thanks to major projects. The beneficiaries will also flow down to the building material players. Buys:
Construction: GAMUDA (TP: RM4.38), IJM (TP: RM5.50), WCT (TP: RM3.30), SUNWAY (TP: RM2.35) and HSL (TP: RM1.90)
Long steel: ANNJOO (TP: 3.05) and KINSTEEL (TP: RM1.00)
Property (Overweight) - No changes in taxes but watch out for imposition of a higher cap on loan-to-value ratio (LVR) rule. Overweight on the developers with strong demand to be driven by ample liquidity. Buys:
Property: SUNCITY (TP:RM5.20), MAHSING (TP: RM2.30) and GLOMAC (TP: RM1.84)
REITs: SUNREIT (TP:RM1.15), CMMT (TP: RM1.20), AXREIT (TP: RM2.28), ARREIT (TP: RM1.19).
Tobacco, Brewery and Gaming (Neutral) - Regular but manageable excise duty hikes Tobacco - Given the resultant 70sen/pack price increase effective today, we expect BAT and JTI's earnings to continue heading in opposite directions. A larger factor is likely to be the continued shift from BAT's premium Dunhill brand to the illicit sector mainly and secondarily to JTI's value Winston brand.
Sell BAT (TP: RM43.00) & Buy JTI (TP: RM6.00) Brewery - Both listed brewers, CARLSBG & GAB will be able to withstand a measured single-digit percentage increase in duty. We prefer CARLSBG mainly because of greater leverage to the Singapore market, which is enjoying a boost from tourism and the success of the casinos.
Buy CARLSBG (TP: RM5.50) & Hold GAB (TP: RM8.40) Gaming - small chance of a gaming duty increase.
Buy GENTING (TP: RM10.45), Sell GENM (TP: RM2.40).
BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO
Cigarette price hike pre-Budget CONSUMER
· Significant 70 sen increase in retail price
Sin Chew Jit Poh reported yesterday that the price of 20s packs of
cigarettes would be raised to RM10.00 from RM9.30 effective today, citing
the Federation of Sundry Goods Merchants’ Association as its source. We
understand that the Association was notified by BAT of the price increase
via a letter that it received on Saturday. There has yet to be an official
announcement by any of the Big 3 tobacco players, Ministry of Finance or
the Customs Department.
· Likely excise duty hike in budget in addition to cess
The 3.5 sen per stick retail price hike is BAT’s move in anticipation of
lower sales volumes resulting from an increase in excise duties widely
expected close to the Budget 2011 announcement on 15 October 2010,
as well as the impending implementation of the cess of 0.5 sen per stick
announced by the National Kenaf and Tobacco Board (LKTN) on 10
August 2010. Excise duties currently stand at 19.0 sen per stick. Based
on the historical tax-led price adjustment of 1.5x over the excise duty hike
and taking into account the cess, we anticipate a 1.8 sen rise in excise
duties to c.20.8 sen.
· Earnings estimates unchanged
We are maintaining our earnings estimates as our assumptions already
imputed a 7.5% increase in cigarette prices and corresponding 5.5%
decline in sales volumes.
· Downgrade to Sell
DCF-based target price held at RM43.00 but lowering our
recommendation to a Sell. Given the recent run-up in BAT’s share price,
our prospective FY10 net dividend yield of 5.0% makes the stock less
attractive from a defensive stand point. The tobacco sector continues to
face strong negative headwinds of tightening regulation and competition
from high levels of illicit trade (37.5% in FY09)
Sunday, October 3, 2010
Syndicate members, who approached their victims at shopping malls or contacted them by phone, even went to the extent of applying for credit cards on the victims’ behalf so they could come up with the money for the investment.
Others claimed they received cheques but there was no more payment after a few months. Victims were initially given various excuses but subsequent calls made to the company’s office went unanswered.
Bureau head Datuk Theng Book believes many more people could have been similarly duped.
The majority of victims lost between RM20,000 and RM40,000, with one losing RM84,000.
He said victims of the scam were mostly from the middle-income group.
Theng said victims had little recourse to recover their money, as current laws as well as the nature of the scam made it difficult.
“It is an enforcement problem. Either we do not have the expertise to enforce it, or the agencies are looking and waiting for each other to act. In the end, the victims suffer,” he lamented.
“It can be classified as deposit-taking because they collect money, promising returns. This falls under Bank Negara as only licensed financial institutions can collect deposits. They can also use the Anti-Money Laundering Act to nab these people.”
“They constantly change the product or the company name. Within six months, they shut down and start a new one. And then they move and sell a new product,” he said.
To check instances of previous fraud cases, visit www.bnm.gov.my/microsites/fraudalert/03_action.htm.
Friday, October 1, 2010
Hai-O is involved in wholesaling, retailing,
multi-level marketing and pharmaceuticals,
and also operates modern Chinese
Bloomberg Ticker HAIO MK
Share Capital (m) 202.2
Market Cap (RMm) 659.1
52 week H│L Price (RM) 4.93 2.40
3mth Avg Vol (‘000) 635.2
YTD Returns -7.6
Beta (x) 0.72
Major Shareholders (%)
Tan Kai Hee 9.61
Akintan SB 7.17
Excellent communication 5.13
Share Performance (%)
Month Absolute Relative
1m 0.9 1.0
3m -11.7 -22.7
6m -26.2 -32.9
12m 46.4 6.7
6-month Share Price Performance
Apr-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10
Hai-O’s 1QFY11 were below our and consensus estimates, with revenue and net
profit diving 63.1% and 57.7% y-o-y respectively. The poor results were mainly
attributed to its MLM division, which reported a sales contraction of 73% amid slower
membership growth. This is, however, partially offset by the sales improvement at
other divisions. Despite the weak results, EBIT margin improved by 2%-pts on higher
operating efficiency, sales of higher margin products, and the weakening of USD
against RM, which has reduced importat costs. Given that the results were
substantially below our expectation, we cut our FY11/12 earnings forecast by 52%-
55%. Our TP is hence reduced to RM1.61. Downgrade to SELL. full report please get it from OSK