股息重要还是股价重要？
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Friday, February 8, 2013
Wednesday, January 2, 2013
Analysts View on the Market for 2013
from THE SUN
Market experts' advice for 2013
Vincent Khoo (Head of research, UOB Kay Hian (M) Holdings Sdn Bhd)
- Bullish on US equities, particularly on US banks, which is reflective of a stable economy
- Indicative 2013 year-end FBM KLCI targets is 1,750 points, based on around 13.8 times prospective PE
- Expect the FBM KLCI to underperform regional bourses in Q1 2013
- Top large cap picks include a blend of defensive companies like capital management play DiGi.Com Bhd, ETP beneficiary Gamuda Bhd and Malaysia Airports Holdings Bhd
- Among small caps : oil & gas beneficiary Perisai Petroleum Teknologi Bhd
- Advocate holdings on to a defensive stance in Q1 2013 ahead of GE13, with high-yielding defensive companies and laggards with visible catalysts
- Position for recovery in Q2 2013, with post-election beneficiaries and ETP plays
Chris Eng (Head of research, Etiqa Insurance & Takaful's investment management division)
- Believe there are some signs of recovery in China with its recovering house prices and expanding manufacturing sector
- As for the US, barring the economy falling over the fiscal cliff, the recovery of house prices and consumer confidence after 5 years of doldrums is a positive signs
- Most economists are seeing reasonable growth of at least 4.5% in Malaysia
Kenny Yee ( Head of research, BIMB Securities Sdn Bhd)
- Believe the US, Eurozone and China are on their road to recovery
- Target 1,730 for 2013 based on a market PE of 15 times with calender 2013 earnings growth if 6%
- Based on analysis, the plantation sector after a disappointing 2012 is envisaged to register double-digit growth for 2013 as average CPO price is expected to trend around RM3,050 per tonne from around RM2,950 per tonne in 2012
- Sector such as finance, rubber gloves & telecommunuication are also expected to register solid double-digit growth
- Top buys are Nestle (M) Bhd, Uzma Bhd, Maxis Bhd, QL Resources Bhd, and Top Glove Corp Bhd
- Expect market volatility to heighten in H1 2013
Wong Ming Tek ( Head of research, HwangDBS Vickers Research Sdn Bhd)
- 2013 year end target is 1,690 points based on 14 times forward earnings
- Top picks:
RHBCap : cheapest large cap bank in our universe
Pos Malaysia : robust growth prospects from courier business, net cash 31% of market cap
MISC Bhd : poised for stronger earnings in quarters ahead
Dayang Enterprise Holdings Bhd : strong contender for Petroliam Nasional Bhd's RM10 billion awards
Multi-Purpose : potential re-rating catalyst in listing of non-gaming business unit MPHB Capital
- Stocks with the most downside: Petronas Dagangan, Bumi Armada Bhd, Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd
Bernard Ching (Head of research, Alliance Rsearch Sdn Bhd)
- Eurozone will continue to be weak without being severely affected by an disorderly breakup of a peripheral economy due to the sovereign debt crisis
- Believe that with the US presidential election well past, both side if the political divide will now sit down and do the right thing
- Expect China to grow at a faster clip in 2013
- FBM KLCI is expected to end 2013 around 1,670 points
- Expect 2013 to be a year of two-halves
1st half - expect fundamental to be weak as the trend of corporate earnings downgrade in 2012 may continue into H1 2013
- believe there is downside risk to the earnings of domestic banks
- market may tumble to the 1,470 level, based on 13 times PE (GE13)
2nd half - optimistic that fundamental play will return post-GE13 as believe investors will look past beyond politics and focus on macro and micro
fundamentals going forward
- believe investor will switch from defensive stocks to cyclical stocks post GE13, though timing depends on the GE13 results
- Top picks: SapuraKencana Petroleum Bhd, Perisai Petroleum, RHB Capital Bhd, Gamuda, Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd, AirAsia Bhd and Multi-Purpose Holdings Bhd
- Top sells: FGVH, BAT, Malaysie Marine Heavy Engineering Holdings Bhd, MAS
Market experts' advice for 2013
Vincent Khoo (Head of research, UOB Kay Hian (M) Holdings Sdn Bhd)
- Bullish on US equities, particularly on US banks, which is reflective of a stable economy
- Indicative 2013 year-end FBM KLCI targets is 1,750 points, based on around 13.8 times prospective PE
- Expect the FBM KLCI to underperform regional bourses in Q1 2013
- Top large cap picks include a blend of defensive companies like capital management play DiGi.Com Bhd, ETP beneficiary Gamuda Bhd and Malaysia Airports Holdings Bhd
- Among small caps : oil & gas beneficiary Perisai Petroleum Teknologi Bhd
- Advocate holdings on to a defensive stance in Q1 2013 ahead of GE13, with high-yielding defensive companies and laggards with visible catalysts
- Position for recovery in Q2 2013, with post-election beneficiaries and ETP plays
Chris Eng (Head of research, Etiqa Insurance & Takaful's investment management division)
- Believe there are some signs of recovery in China with its recovering house prices and expanding manufacturing sector
- As for the US, barring the economy falling over the fiscal cliff, the recovery of house prices and consumer confidence after 5 years of doldrums is a positive signs
- Most economists are seeing reasonable growth of at least 4.5% in Malaysia
Kenny Yee ( Head of research, BIMB Securities Sdn Bhd)
- Believe the US, Eurozone and China are on their road to recovery
- Target 1,730 for 2013 based on a market PE of 15 times with calender 2013 earnings growth if 6%
- Based on analysis, the plantation sector after a disappointing 2012 is envisaged to register double-digit growth for 2013 as average CPO price is expected to trend around RM3,050 per tonne from around RM2,950 per tonne in 2012
- Sector such as finance, rubber gloves & telecommunuication are also expected to register solid double-digit growth
- Top buys are Nestle (M) Bhd, Uzma Bhd, Maxis Bhd, QL Resources Bhd, and Top Glove Corp Bhd
- Expect market volatility to heighten in H1 2013
Wong Ming Tek ( Head of research, HwangDBS Vickers Research Sdn Bhd)
- 2013 year end target is 1,690 points based on 14 times forward earnings
- Top picks:
RHBCap : cheapest large cap bank in our universe
Pos Malaysia : robust growth prospects from courier business, net cash 31% of market cap
MISC Bhd : poised for stronger earnings in quarters ahead
Dayang Enterprise Holdings Bhd : strong contender for Petroliam Nasional Bhd's RM10 billion awards
Multi-Purpose : potential re-rating catalyst in listing of non-gaming business unit MPHB Capital
- Stocks with the most downside: Petronas Dagangan, Bumi Armada Bhd, Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd
Bernard Ching (Head of research, Alliance Rsearch Sdn Bhd)
- Eurozone will continue to be weak without being severely affected by an disorderly breakup of a peripheral economy due to the sovereign debt crisis
- Believe that with the US presidential election well past, both side if the political divide will now sit down and do the right thing
- Expect China to grow at a faster clip in 2013
- FBM KLCI is expected to end 2013 around 1,670 points
- Expect 2013 to be a year of two-halves
1st half - expect fundamental to be weak as the trend of corporate earnings downgrade in 2012 may continue into H1 2013
- believe there is downside risk to the earnings of domestic banks
- market may tumble to the 1,470 level, based on 13 times PE (GE13)
2nd half - optimistic that fundamental play will return post-GE13 as believe investors will look past beyond politics and focus on macro and micro
fundamentals going forward
- believe investor will switch from defensive stocks to cyclical stocks post GE13, though timing depends on the GE13 results
- Top picks: SapuraKencana Petroleum Bhd, Perisai Petroleum, RHB Capital Bhd, Gamuda, Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd, AirAsia Bhd and Multi-Purpose Holdings Bhd
- Top sells: FGVH, BAT, Malaysie Marine Heavy Engineering Holdings Bhd, MAS
Monday, December 31, 2012
Market in 2013 to be decent, but not spectacular: PublicInvest
Market in 2013 to be decent, but not spectacular: PublicInvest
Posted on 28 December 2012 - 05:40am
sunbiz@thesundaily.com
PETALING JAYA (Dec 28, 2012): The performance of Malaysia's stock market will be decent, but not particularly spectacular in 2013, said PublicInvest Research.
"While the challenging international environment is still expected to pose downside risks to Malaysia's growth prospects, domestic demand is expected to continue to be the anchor of growth, supported by expansions in private investments and consumption," the research firm said in a report dated Dec 21.
"On that score, the performance of the local bourse should be decent, but not spectacular."
PublicInvest said while 2012 was a year of expectation which drove stock markets higher as central banks worldwide had been anticipated to announce stimulus measures and which they subsequently did, 2013 will be marked as a year of execution in which structural issues around the globe will have to be satisfactorily sorted out.
It is keeping its year-end 2013 FBM KLCI target at 1,760 points, an upside of about 5.4% from current levels. Its year-end 2012 expectation is 1,690 points.
"If we were to hazard a guess, we could see the benchmark index trading pattern like a sine wave, with the first-quarter 2013 (Q1) trading downwards on general election concerns, followed by a recovery in Q2 and Q3 on improving macroeconomic conditions in Europe, ending in a likely drift toward the finishing line in Q4 on a gradual slide owing to a dearth of significant market-moving leads," said PublicInvest.
"Stocks which we believe will outperform in the coming year, given the underlying macro conditions, are CIMB Group Holdings Bhd, Telekom Malaysia Bhd, Gamuda Bhd, KPJ Healthcare Bhd, Kian Joo Can Factory Bhd, Dayang Enterprise Holdings Bhd, Perdana Petroleum Bhd, Cypark Resources Bhd and Prestariang Bhd," it added.
To recap, PublicInvest said the government's Budget 2013 plans announced in September this year was largely market neutral as it did not contain anything out of the ordinary, of which most if not all (that is, cash handouts, etc) had been largely factored into expectations.
"The most telling issue however was the fact that the government would be running a deficit for a 16th consecutive year, somewhat necessary in still-challenging economic times but somewhat worrisome given the nation's unhealthy reliance on debt to fund growth, a point of which has been raised time and again by international agencies scrutinising our sovereign rating.
"While it is laudable that the government remains focused on reducing the nation's budget deficit, it is nevertheless a little disconcerting that the quantum remains elevated and running in excess of RM35 billion for the fifth year running," it added.
"Forecast government revenue is premised upon certain assumptions and inherent economic conditions. What if expectations are missed?" said PublicInvest.
The research firm pointed to the fact that close to 24% or RM59.8 billion of the government's annual budget goes to debt service and subsidies, and believes that both are probably addressable and avoidable with more efficient allocation of resources.
On the upcoming general election, PublicInvest said current indications are that the balance of power would remain status quo, with perhaps a slightly lesser majority in Parliament.
"Were that to be the case, the stock market could possibly perk up in positive reaction, with the construction sector likely to race ahead of others as a huge uncertainty is removed. Be that as it may, we do not see significant movements to the upside as well, and think the onset of a bull market rather
unlikely as structural reforms all across the globe will need to be effected from 2013 onwards, capping liquidity-driven enthusiasm."
It said 2013 for Malaysia, will be a time of fulfilling all promises made in the run-up to the 13th General Election.
"All is not gloomy however, as there are still pockets of opportunities for general outperformance in 2013. Growing consumerism within a continent that contains half the world's population still holds promise for companies which have direct and indirect exposures."
Posted on 28 December 2012 - 05:40am
sunbiz@thesundaily.com
PETALING JAYA (Dec 28, 2012): The performance of Malaysia's stock market will be decent, but not particularly spectacular in 2013, said PublicInvest Research.
"While the challenging international environment is still expected to pose downside risks to Malaysia's growth prospects, domestic demand is expected to continue to be the anchor of growth, supported by expansions in private investments and consumption," the research firm said in a report dated Dec 21.
"On that score, the performance of the local bourse should be decent, but not spectacular."
PublicInvest said while 2012 was a year of expectation which drove stock markets higher as central banks worldwide had been anticipated to announce stimulus measures and which they subsequently did, 2013 will be marked as a year of execution in which structural issues around the globe will have to be satisfactorily sorted out.
It is keeping its year-end 2013 FBM KLCI target at 1,760 points, an upside of about 5.4% from current levels. Its year-end 2012 expectation is 1,690 points.
"If we were to hazard a guess, we could see the benchmark index trading pattern like a sine wave, with the first-quarter 2013 (Q1) trading downwards on general election concerns, followed by a recovery in Q2 and Q3 on improving macroeconomic conditions in Europe, ending in a likely drift toward the finishing line in Q4 on a gradual slide owing to a dearth of significant market-moving leads," said PublicInvest.
"Stocks which we believe will outperform in the coming year, given the underlying macro conditions, are CIMB Group Holdings Bhd, Telekom Malaysia Bhd, Gamuda Bhd, KPJ Healthcare Bhd, Kian Joo Can Factory Bhd, Dayang Enterprise Holdings Bhd, Perdana Petroleum Bhd, Cypark Resources Bhd and Prestariang Bhd," it added.
To recap, PublicInvest said the government's Budget 2013 plans announced in September this year was largely market neutral as it did not contain anything out of the ordinary, of which most if not all (that is, cash handouts, etc) had been largely factored into expectations.
"The most telling issue however was the fact that the government would be running a deficit for a 16th consecutive year, somewhat necessary in still-challenging economic times but somewhat worrisome given the nation's unhealthy reliance on debt to fund growth, a point of which has been raised time and again by international agencies scrutinising our sovereign rating.
"While it is laudable that the government remains focused on reducing the nation's budget deficit, it is nevertheless a little disconcerting that the quantum remains elevated and running in excess of RM35 billion for the fifth year running," it added.
"Forecast government revenue is premised upon certain assumptions and inherent economic conditions. What if expectations are missed?" said PublicInvest.
The research firm pointed to the fact that close to 24% or RM59.8 billion of the government's annual budget goes to debt service and subsidies, and believes that both are probably addressable and avoidable with more efficient allocation of resources.
On the upcoming general election, PublicInvest said current indications are that the balance of power would remain status quo, with perhaps a slightly lesser majority in Parliament.
"Were that to be the case, the stock market could possibly perk up in positive reaction, with the construction sector likely to race ahead of others as a huge uncertainty is removed. Be that as it may, we do not see significant movements to the upside as well, and think the onset of a bull market rather
unlikely as structural reforms all across the globe will need to be effected from 2013 onwards, capping liquidity-driven enthusiasm."
It said 2013 for Malaysia, will be a time of fulfilling all promises made in the run-up to the 13th General Election.
"All is not gloomy however, as there are still pockets of opportunities for general outperformance in 2013. Growing consumerism within a continent that contains half the world's population still holds promise for companies which have direct and indirect exposures."
Monday, December 24, 2012
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